silentbob's Week 3 player props thread

[silentbob]

I made three bets the other night. The lines have moved down for two of these, so anyone considering tailing should be extra-careful.

Amani Toomer under 60.5 receiving yards at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). The line is currently at 58.5. Toomer has averaged 45 per game in the last two seasons. I know Plexiglass is a game-time decision, but even if he doesn't play my understanding is that Shockey would get more looks. Also, the Giants suck on defense and I don't expect them to have the ball very much given the Gibbs tendency to grind the clock.

Brett Favre under 24.5 pass completions at -125 for 1 unit (Bodog). The line has moved to 23.5. Similar rationale applies here. I think the Packers will need to pass, but San Diego will own the ball for so long that Favre won't have a chance to rack up enough attempts (for example, the current line on LT2 carries is 23.5). Also, I don't think Favre will have as much time to pass as Brady did last Sunday night.

Bernard Berrian under 80.5 receiving yards at -120 for 1 unit (Bodog). Yes, Berrian is primarily a deep target. This is a Rex Grossman fade. My only hesitation is that the Dallas defense has given up some big-time yardage to opposing WRs so far this season.

Dallas Clark under 52.5 receiving yards at -130 for 1 unit (Bodog). Clark has averaged in the low 30s per game throughout the last two years. He's also hurt. Even if he plays, I don't think Peyton will target him much.

Good luck.

YTD: 2-6, -4.18 units

[SonnyJay]

I'm with you on Clark.

Any concern about Terrence Newman not playing against Berrian? I've held off for that reason, I think even Grossman could target Berrian against Nathan Jones/Jacques Reeves.

Did you look at Santonio Holmes today? I think he could have problems against Walt Harris.

Good stuff as always.

[silentbob]

Thanks. Truth be told, Newman's status did not affect my read because there's no guarantee that he'll be covering Berrian. As my comments above suggest, however, this is the one prop where I'm least confident. It's based strictly on the fact that Rex Grossman sucks.

I have one more bet.

Chris Chambers under 85.5 receiving yards at -115 for 1 unit (Bodog). Seriously?!? He's surpassed this figure in only 20 of 94 games coming into this season. The only reason why I'm not betting 2 units is because Trent Green is a better QB than what Miami has had in past years and Cam Cameron is a decent offensive coach. Chambers has been productive in the first two games, but it's completely out of whack with his prior record. I expect regression. This is a lot of yards to lay for a third-tier WR -- you usually see such a line only for the likes of Harrison, Wayne, TO, etc.

[MrFeelNothin]

I like the Chambers and Clark bets. I'm also on David Garrard u235.5 yards against Denver. GL.

[silentbob]

Wow, I suck this year. Following you on Garrard. Looks really good.

0-3 so far today.

[silentbob]

Even though Berrian came close to covering, at least I don't suck as much as Rex Grossman.

I've also learned the hard way for a second straight week that the Chargers defense isn't nearly as good as advertised.

This week: 3-3, -0.5 units
YTD: 5-9, -4.68 units