silentbob's Week 11 player props thread

[silentbob]

I don't LOVE my picks this week, which is to say that nothing screamed out at me as bet-worthy. But I do think there's value in the three props below.

Michael Vick under 62.5 rushing yards at -120 for 1 unit. I don't think the absence of Ray Lewis will make a huge difference. Vick racks up high rushing totals from runs of 20-30 yards. The Ravens have given up a grand total of 2 runs of over 20 yards all season. Their run defense is already strong to begin with (80 yards/game). The clincher for me, although this is a small sample, is that in his two games on grass this season, Vick has 48 and 55 yards. In past seasons, his big rushing games have been on turf.

Hines Ward under 80.5 receiving yards at -120 for 1 unit. This is largely a "fade the hot streak" bet. What also swayed me is that Cleveland has one of the top pass defenses in the NFL yardage-wise. They are also very strong at shutting down #1 receivers. Their weakness is in stopping the run, and I expect lots of FWP from Pittsburgh.

LaDainian Tomlinson under 75 rushing yards at +225 for 0.5 unit, 76-95 rushing yards at +180 for 0.5 unit. EV-wise, this is equivalent to under 95.5 yards at +101 -- way better than the under 89.5 yards at -110 prop on BetGameDay that I contemplated yesterday. In 10 career games against Denver, LT2 has surpassed 95 yards rushing only twice. If SD is missing Castillo, Denver might run at will and keep LT2 off the field. LT2 has carried me to a 8-2 FF record this year, but I'm fading him today. Maybe he'll rack up a ton of yards receiving and/or throw a TD pass, that's my win-win situation!

(BTW, Bodog has subsequently changed the odds of under 75 yards to +215 but the EV is still good)

I may add one or two more bets later, Bodog has props up for 10 of the 16 NFL games this week.

YTD: 18-5-1, +11.66 units

[thing85]

M. Vick and H. Ward prop bets are good. Thanks.

[silentbob]

Bodog hasn't graded it yet, but I think the Ward prop will be a loser. NFL.com had him at 80 yards when he got hurt, but changed it to 81 several minutes later. Bastards!

Oh well, given the close covers I had two weeks ago, something like this was inevitable.

Vick ripped off a couple of runs but the Ravens largely kept him contained and were able to embark on a clock-killing drive in the 4th quarter. Thanks, Jamal Lewis!

This week: 1-1, -0.2 units

[silentbob]

First losing week. LT2 had 82 yards with a few minutes left, but Plummer threw a pick when I thought the Chargers were done for the game on offense. On the bright side, he got me 41 points in fantasy football and SD easily covered +9 on my teasers (where much more money was at stake).

This week: 1-2, -1.2 units
YTD: 19-7-1, +10.46 units