Updated Cliff Notes On Absolute Poker Scandal (18th October)

[Rips]

Yes, N 82, that is pretty much spot on how it is most likely to work. (In a simple version ofcourse)

[sbj]

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Well, I think the way he presented it is pretty close to accurate and is much easier to explain than trying to convince a layman reading it "well, this is how winning at poker works."

Also, my 6max VPIP is only around 15-16%, so I probably win less than 1/6 of the hands I play and I'm still a very solid winner, so your definition of being a winning player is a little off.

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In my opinion the best stat/graph I have seen in these threads, was the graph with VPIP on one axis and BB/100 on the other. Showing Villians absurd 90% VPIP and his equally absurdly high BB's won/100.

[MastermindT]

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http://wizardofodds.com/software/absolutepoker.html

Michael Shackleford's website. I wondered when he would chime in.

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He has done some great analysis here.

In particular, he calculates the probability that someone would run this good in a multi-table tournament: 1 in in 1.88 × 10^44, or, in long form, 1 in 188,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,00 0,000,000. He put it at 14 standard deviations above the mean.

This is broadly consistent with my earlier calculations that put the cheaters' cash win rates at 15 standard deviations above the mean. The only thing I had off was the number of zeroes at the end of the number - I had guess there would've been around 30, when there should be 44.

I had previously thought that the cheaters had about the same chance of running this good as winning six consecutive one-in-a-million lotteries. In reality, the cheaters actually have the same chance of running this good as winning seven consecutive one-in-a-million lotteries.


<font color="red">To summarise: either these are now two of literally the most incredibly miraculous occurences in the history of the universe, or they are cheating.</font>

I have not found any other sample of anything with a result of fourteen or fifteen standard deviations above the mean. If anyone is aware of any, can they please PM or email me?

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Wikipedia:
.... and that the observable universe is 78 billion light years across (7.4 * 10^26 metres), and contains about 5 *10^22 stars .... It would therefore be much easier to pick the sun (our star) from all the stars in the universe blindfolded.

edit: I also don't agree with the absurd size of the number proposed (10^44), but just wanted to find an occurence that would match it.

[Davdob]

If Mike Shackelford is on your ass, its pretty much over for me.

I will say this though --

That hand history is unequivocal proof someone had the hole cards. If lightning hits you 20 times in one day, that isnt bad luck, God exists. Repent sinner. This is about the same level of proof.

Not only would I have nothing to do with Absolute, I would have nothing to do with anything remotely related to it including Ultimate Bet. The owning company is scared and corrupt. In the face of this evidence there is one and only one response.

We are horrified, shocked and appaled and will spare no expense fixiing this. We are refunding all the money lost in those tournaments to all players. We will hire a credible and independent auditor to investigate this and publicly release the results without internal review.


We hope we can regain your trust.


Outside of that hand history being bogus, there is literally no other acceptable response. Get to it now, or get out of business.

[suzzer99]

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Digg it peeps [deleted]

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I actually think this could backfire, as his statistical assumptions are completely off-base. I used to work for a statistical consulting firm that worked on gigiantic trials for lots of money. We would destroy his argument in 10 seconds.

[Admo]

[N 82 50 24]

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1st

edit: awesome

reedit: meaning an awesome photoshop, hopefully there isn't an innocent name on there or something, etc, etc

[Wilbert]

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To quote Johan Cruijff, Netherlands best soccer player from 70s and 80s: "Every disadvantage has an advandate". (Elk nadeel hep zn voordeel)

[/ QUOTE ]FYP

[NNNNOOOOONAN]

jesus, that's amazing

re: admo, not that silly math junk.

[ibluffoldladies]

I'm agnostic, but now I choose to follow Admo.