NL 100: AKo Squeeze

[CalledDownLight]

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Can you please explain to me why this is a good shove if his range is QQ+? You have next to zero FE, almost nothing invested, and poor pot equity. Please explain.

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Because you don't have poor pot equity. You have good pot equity. He has 6 combos QQ, 3 combos KK, 3 combos AA and $18.50 of dead money and only $38 more to you. Since his range is at least a little wider even if its only wider if he misclicked or is tilting then you can get it in.

[Cody1982]

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Can you please explain to me why this is a good shove if his range is QQ+? You have next to zero FE, almost nothing invested, and poor pot equity. Please explain.

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Because you don't have poor pot equity. You have good pot equity. He has 6 combos QQ, 3 combos KK, 3 combos AA and $18.50 of dead money and only $38 more to you. Since his range is at least a little wider even if its only wider if he misclicked or is tilting then you can get it in.

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Could you please expand on this a little more. I think I have found a huge leak in my game cause what you are saying makes sense.

[CalledDownLight]

Ok, I'm just going to do the math really quickly like I would do it in hand so these numbers are rough estimates. Remember, I'm talking about CO with a hypothetical range. I don't think this range is accurate for either player. When he calls the pot will be about $95 after rake. You have contributed $37.30 more to this. That is about 38% of the pot so that is your breakeven equity if you're called 100%. You are 50% vs. half his range (QQ), 30% vs. 1/4 of his range (KK) and 15%ish vs. 1/4 his range (AA). Thus you have about 36% equity. This equity holds true if this is the calling range for CO too, but you're going to need more equity to breakeven, but should also have more FE. Thus, if they both fold 10% of the time you make up the $2 you lose in AI equity and gain $1 more from the $30 of dead money in the pot.

[Albert Moulton]

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I disagree. I think in this situation you can flat call the 3 bet and take the flop.

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In general, I think that flat calling a reraise out of position with a hand like AK is a leak. Raising or folding is better. You will miss your top pair 2/3s of the time, and even when you hit you will then have to play OOP on every street which makes it hard to win the most when ahead, and lose the least when behind.

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Huh,
that makes a lot of since. What about a fold here ?

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At the start of the hand, these were the effective stacks (hero covers):

CO ($69.90)
Button ($41.30)


So, after the CO's reraise to $13, he only has ~$57 left with $30 in the pot, not counting blinds or rake. A push of about $57 more is exerting maximum pressure to win $30 when everybody folds. When they don't fold, the pot odds will be ~$57:$87 (with one caller, since we'd expect button to fold if CO calls) or about 1.5:1.

Against QQ-AA, which we assume will call, then hero's AKo has 30% equity.

Vs other hands, we'll assume CO and BTN fold to the all-in.

What percentage of the time does CO need to fold (assuming BTN will fold too)?

-$13.8 = EV when Opponent Calls w/QQ-AA = (-$57)*.7 + ($87)*.3

Required Fold Equity [FE] vs villains total range required to Break even...
+$13.8 = = $30 * FE

FE = 46%

If CO folds everything except QQ-AA, and if BTN folds every time, then he needs to have a preflop reraising range twice as large as QQ-AA and fold those other hands in order for a push here to break even. With 18 combinations of QQ-AA, if he reraises and then folds with AK(9),JJ(6), and either TT(6) or AQs(4) then this is +EV.

If you think CO calls with AK, then the EV vs his calls goes up some, and the required fold equity goes down some.

Since the OP said something like, "no reads," then he's just estimating villain to have a reraising range of
JJ-AA, AK, and either TT and/or AQs. It's a little optimistic, but reasonable.

Besides, even if hero ends up losing the 3/4s of a buy-in to a big pair, he'll look crazier than he is and end up getting more action later in the session from CO and probably the others, too (hopefully when the stacks are deeper).

If CO had a full stack, then I'd probably fold OOP to the reraise unless I had a read on CO as reraising light and I wanted to try to resteal with either another reraise or maybe a stop & go on any flop whether I hit it or not.

[sobos]

Your pot equity is about 33% and your pot odds are 42% if his range is QQKKAA. It seems -EV to shove given that you have no fold equity. If you include JJ in there, then your equity is about 39% and a shove is still -EV. If his range also includes AK, then you are about break-even. This is all assuming that you get one caller.

[CalledDownLight]

Albert, you have blockers for the AA and KK combos which cuts them in half. This has a huge impact on our pot equity which you didn't account for. Our equity is much higher than 30% although someone with pokerstove should be able to confirm this pretty quickly. I'm pretty sure our pot equity is about 35-36%.

[sobos]

You're a 43% dog to QQ (6/12 chance) a 70% dog to KK (3/12) and a 92% dog to AA (3/12)>>>> ~33% equity! Assuming you have 0 FE and get one caller, you have to pay $66 into a (70+70+13)=153 pot (66/153~43%). 33<43! >>>> -EV.

[Berge20]

You guys really think the shorter stack flat caller is folding here all the time? I think he is the more likely of the two to call--and with the much wider range.

Plus, if CO calls...BT is getting crazy pot odds on his remaining money.

So I felt in order of likelihood:
BT calls
Both fold
Both call
CO calls

Here is how I viewed the scenarios.

CO Range: JJ/QQ/KK/AA/AK with a very tiny TT/AQs/Bluff
BT Range: 77+ AQ+ without AA/KK often

Against BT only I have 51% Equity
Against both players, I have ~25% Equity
Against only CO I have ~40% Equity

So, I'm in great shape if only BT calls:
Pot ~$94 (47 Equity--42 invested)

I'm happy if both fold: ($31)

If both call:
Main pot will be ~$122 (against CO and BT) (31 Equity)
Side pot will be ~$57 (against CO) (23 Equity)

If only CO calls pot is ~$155 (62 Equity)

Obviously I couldn't do this type of math on the spot, but I figured this was roughly where I was at. Seemed like the right move. Good discussion

[Albert Moulton]

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Albert, you have blockers for the AA and KK combos which cuts them in half. This has a huge impact on our pot equity which you didn't account for. Our equity is much higher than 30% although someone with pokerstove should be able to confirm this pretty quickly. I'm pretty sure our pot equity is about 35-36%.

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Oops. Thanks.

This was incorrect, as you point out:
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With 18 (sic) combinations of QQ-AA, if he reraises and then folds with AK(9),JJ(6), and either TT(6) or AQs(4)(sic)then this is +EV.


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My post should have read,

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With 12 (fixed) combinations of QQ-AA ( QQ(6), KK(3), AA(3) ), if he reraises and then folds with AK(9), JJ(6) and/or AQs(3 (fixed)) then this is +EV.

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Hero is still relying on a wider range for villain than simply QQ-AA/AK for this to be +EV, I think.

And Berge's point about the shorty on the button possibly being more inclined to call than CO might be true. I assumed, possibly in correctly, that button had something like 88 or AQs with which he shouldn't have called in the first place, and with which he wouldn't call for the rest of his stack either heads up or 3-way for fear that hero had a big pair despite the size of the pot.

As for the pokerstove equity of QQ-AA vs AKo, I thought I'd run it before posting, but I'll have to check later. I didn't run QQ-AA,AK vs AK because I was assuming AK would fold (this might also be an incorrect assumption, however).

All-in-all, this is a marginal move that doesn't rise to the level of spew only because the CO and BTN don't have full stacks. But I like the push better than a call. And I wouldn't object to a fold preflop to the reraise, either.