TPTK facing massive overbet shove on river from massive donk

[choccypie]

BB is 73/5/0.36 over about 200 hands. Absolutely awful player, would call to the river if he's hit any piece of the flop, and refuses to fold any big ace

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($32.75)
UTG ($12.85)
Hero ($10)
CO ($9.85)
Button ($26.50)
SB ($7.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls $0.30.

Flop: ($0.85) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $0.7</font>, BB calls $0.70.

<font color="blue">Ok I've completely missed the flop, but he doesn't need to know that, could also be a potential straight draw, so I fire a cbet. Hmm I get called, he must have something, if turn doesn't bring anything nice I think I'm done with the hand. </font>

Turn: ($2.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.8</font>, BB calls $1.80.

<font color="blue">An ace is certainly nice, now I figure with TPTK it's likely that I have the best hand, so I bet to get some value from it. Villian calls again - it's what calling stations do best, but surely he can't be calling 2 streets without a solid hand?</font>

River: ($5.85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $29.85 (All-In)</font>, Hero...??

<font color="blue">I don't like the river card, as it brings a potential straight. But the flop and turn check/calls from villian leads me to think he was probably on a draw. However he is the kind of player who won't fold pocket 2s on that board. He's also really, really passive, but that massive river overbet smells more like he wants me to think he has a 2. His line really doesn't make any sense...</font>

Any thoughts?

[Babalatexi]

When I play against these super donks that fold to 30% of cbets I bet AK for value on the flop ;x. On the river I insta-fold, from my experience this is the nuts most of the time and the donk doesn't know how to extract. Granted I would call against some villains but that requires a specific read.

By the way, your analysis is way off in my opinion. A donk like this calls the flop with just about anything, from air to sets. Even on the turn he might have anything from a draw/1 pair to the nuts, there's no way to know with players like this.

[terrible]

you played it fine but fold the river. his calling range is huge throughout the hand and no one with a 0.36 AF is overbet shoving here without having you well beat. also you say in your river analysis that you thought he was drawing but most draws got there (67, 23, even random gutters like 62). calling here because he's a bad player is suicide.

[willyc]

Let's take a look at this hand from BB's perspective and analyze his thinking on every street, just as we saw your thought process in your original post.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($32.75)
UTG ($12.85)
MP ($10)
CO ($9.85)
Button ($26.50)
SB ($7.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $0.4</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.30.

<font color="blue"> lol I have 26 suited - insta-call. </font>

Flop: ($0.85) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $0.7</font>, Hero calls $0.70.

<font color="blue">lol I could make a straight with a 3 - call. </font>

Turn: ($2.25) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $1.8</font>, Hero calls $1.80.

<font color="blue">I can still make a straight on the river lol.</font>

River: ($5.85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $29.85 (All-In)</font>, MP considers that Hero's line doesn't make sense because he would want to bet for value if he made a straight and realizes that Hero is using level seven thinking to try and trick MP into folding the best hand.

<font color="blue">lol I made my straight - all-in looooool!</font>

Seriously, take a look at villains stats and realize that the reason he lasted more than one day playing poker was by getting his massive river overbets payed off when he actually hit something after calling the flop and turn against all odds.

A player this bad is not capable of making this bluff out of position. This is always a hand that beats top pair. If this were against a very good player at higher stakes and your image was weak-tight then you might think about calling, but here it's an insta-fold.

[bsball8806]

yeah this is such an easy fold. I'd probably fold A9 here. Whether he has a 2, or slow played his set the entire way, we aren't good nearly enough to make this a profitable call.

[matrix]

he has a set 2pair or he luckboxed the straight.

easy fold. Yeah maybe *sometimes* we fold the best hand here but it's OK to get bluffed off the best hand by *awful* players sometimes. There will be a better situation soon where we can get him to call off his stack when we are WA.

his range (which is almost any two) contains such beauties as 67 53 62s A2/3/4/5/9 + sets

realistically we beat AT-AQ and a bluff. This isn't a bluff often enough to make calling +EV in the long run I think. Be happy that he's a moran who lights up like a pig in a wall socket when he makes a hand, so that we can get away easy.

On this river a better player who has TPTK cooked and puts you on a TPTK hand will donk-3bet all-in and then you have a tough decision.

[bsball8806]

[ QUOTE ]

his range (which is almost any two) contains such beauties as 67 53 62s A2/3/4/5/9 + sets


[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

[Dr_Doctr]

Very clear fold. And funny/accurate analysis Willyc [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[subs]

fold... hes got the nuts

[Prac]

fold... hes got the nuts --&gt; ur villian right?

id fold, why call for a pot of 5 dollars...