Knowing your math. Basic draws.

[rockusteady]

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Push. I'm surprised more people haven't advocated this. ...

I think he only calls us with sets and pair + combo draws, and even then we have outs.

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BTW, don't want to single people out, but that bolded statement is horrible. Why? This type of player, sure, may only call with those hands... But they have those hands so, so often in that spot! Plus, i'm always unpleasantly surprised to see even tighter players call with insanely loose holdings.

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I think you misunderstood the point on my post. I was trying to say that shoving the turn (or just raising it) has a lot of FE against a ton of hands that he can have here that we beat.

Obv, if we get called, we are going to be behind. But I disagree that he shows up with a pair + combo/sets nearly that often. Most of the time he mucks his PPs/ small flush draws.

I agree with Isura- I don't think your average 1/2 nit is very good and doesn't necessarily think through the hand properly. So i think the raise is good because of how much FE it has.

I guess it comes down to disagreeing on his range. I think he has 99-QQ way more often then a set or pair +combo draws- you think otherwise.

Regardless- I enjoyed the post, Bobbo.
thanks

[True]

1. shove/fold

2. c/f

3. shove

I don't think any of them are close but the first, vill can have a worse FD etc aswell.... A-xc is not huge part of his range however.

[Spy Dog]

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#2. We are UTG and pick up AQo, suits irrelevant. We (200, unknown to these players) make it 8, button ("defends his button religiously" but a tag/lag with 245) calls.
Sub Q: If this player 3bets to 25 total, what's our standard play?
Any case, flop (~19) comes T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], we bet 12, villain calls. Turn (43) comes a blank, 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. What's our play? If we check, villain bets 25. What's our play then?

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Haven't read the rest of the responses, but I'll just answer this one because I'm sure I'll be in the minority.

I think most LAGTAGs will 3-bet JJ/TT preflop, so I would nearly eliminate those from his range. I can see him coldcalling 44 preflop, but he will almost never not raise this flop because it contains 2 broadways, so that can be eliminated. Same goes for JT. Eliminate it because he needs to raise that on the flop.

So, our villian is usually drawing or has something like AT/KJ/AJ. If he likes to float then he can even have air. None of these hands can sustain a large CR on the turn.

Therefore, a turn CR is the most profitable play against this player.

[TheWorstPlayer]

1. i'd call, don't bluff the river
2. i'd double barrel, but if i check, i'd call and then bet any river except for the nuts which i would c/r
3. i'd call and bluff the river if i miss

edit: I think it's very interesting how Rob's post and Josh's post are both really good even though they are so different. Mine is even different from both of them (and obviously I think it's good!). Obviously it's all depending on the various assumptions people are making about our opponents. For instance, in hand 1, Rob wants to call for implied odds, Josh wants to fold because he's afraid of hitting and losing (although if he thinks sets are a big part of villain's range, he could just fold a pairing river flush and then he'd still be able to stack villain on non-pairing flushes since no one ever folds a set - but whatever) and I want to call because I think that our hand might be good and if it isn't a K or a T might make it good!

On hand 2, no one has suggested my line, yet, but both Rob and Josh have alluded to it. In Rob's analysis, he talks about people making calls on the river if they hit a pair because they now beat AK. WTF, Rob!? Who the heck bets the flop, c/c's the turn, and then bets the river with AK!? On the contrary, I think that's a great bluff line here, because you will get people to even fold a T to you! And if you hit an ace or a Q, you can vb against a J! His range is pretty polarized here since I think he'd raise a flop bet with a strong hand on a two broadway board. So he either has a J or a T or a bluff like 95% of the time. So check/call, bet river can get him off a marginal made hand and gets the most from a J if you hit, and balances out your play with overpairs, since that's the line I'd take with AA, too, here.

On hand 3, pushing is god awful. He calls you with NFD and you lose to ace high on the river. Congrats! But calling looks like AA/AK. So if he bets the river, you can fold (I'd even fold AA!) but if he checks, you can 'value bet' and get him off a marginal pair (or ace high). And if you hit, your hand is disguised because you raised preflop so you can easily stack a set!

WHO THE HECK FOLDS ANY OF THESE HANDS?

Also, in the AQ hand, i'd call a reraise and c/r all-in on most flops. Don't mess with me TAG/LAG button!

[Kermit]

Good post TWP!!!

I see you like exclamation points as well!!

Cheers!!

Kermit

[TheWorstPlayer]

draws get me hard

[BobboFitos]

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On hand 2, no one has suggested my line, yet, but both Rob and Josh have alluded to it. In Rob's analysis, he talks about people making calls on the river if they hit a pair because they now beat AK. WTF, Rob!? Who the heck bets the flop, c/c's the turn, and then bets the river with AK!? On the contrary, I think that's a great bluff line here, because you will get people to even fold a T to you! And if you hit an ace or a Q, you can vb against a J! His range is pretty polarized here since I think he'd raise a flop bet with a strong hand on a two broadway board. So he either has a J or a T or a bluff like 95% of the time. So check/call, bet river can get him off a marginal made hand and gets the most from a J if you hit, and balances out your play with overpairs, since that's the line I'd take with AA, too, here.

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Real good post, dov. I wanted to single this out specifically. (and then I realized I wanted to comment on everything)

The reason why I'm not concerned about bluffing the river is I believe if we bluff, alot of the times they fold we had them anyway (ala the float, as in 67 78 etc). I strongly believe alot of people w/ that type will peel the flop wide, such as guts, floats, mid pair, but they're also exercise pot control in order to facilitate showdown mode. Thus, when they DO bet the turn, it's a check call given the parlay of implied odds "are there" (on a river c/r, given two pair+ bet/call a king river) and ace high is good vs most floats. Or, put another way, I believe very few people are betting with a 10 and "not putting more money in," in fact, a weak jack will often check behind and call or bet the river themselves. I left that out of my assumptions, but I wanted to encourage the fact that their range is so polarized. That's another small reason I like checking more then 2nd barreling, too, as in the card is a blank so if villain was ahead on the flop they're still head on the turn, so I think alot of these marginal hands (which we are a dog to) dont simply go away there but hang around - and we're not pushing an equity advantage.

also, I think that c-c bet river if you improve (on a Q or A) is not good given people CAN fold a pair (if they have, say QJ and the ace falls) given that card hits AT, KQ, AK, AQ, etc -> so, if we bet, I think we lose the value from inducing bluffs, but obviously if we both improve (as in AQ vs QJ and a queen falls) we get called. (and that number v close to what w'd check call)

The reason c-c on a good card > blank (where we have ace high) is another float shell, missed draw (like ace lands they have 89, vs a 9 lands and they still think they're bluffing) is because when we get to the river, I'd classify AQ high as a bad bluffcatcher since we dont beat all bluffs. I'd classify an improved AQ (to top pair) as a decent value bet, and therefore, a terrific bluffcatcher. But yeah, I think there is merit to leading out on an ace or queen, too, just remember the reason for the turn c/c was bc they're fos (combinatorics aside) more then half the time, so you want to allow them to bet again. (obv, if you dont improve, they wont always fre away, and sometimes you win w/ ace high, which is one of those factors which swung it into a turn c/c)

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On hand 3, pushing is god awful. He calls you with NFD and you lose to ace high on the river. Congrats! But calling looks like AA/AK. So if he bets the river, you can fold (I'd even fold AA!) but if he checks, you can 'value bet' and get him off a marginal pair (or ace high). And if you hit, your hand is disguised because you raised preflop so you can easily stack a set!

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Going to add I think this is a better plan, bc stacks are 1 PSB or so on the river, and alot of the value for us calling the turn is if he has a good hand most people simply will shove the river, so when we have the nuts we can slowroll and call. (Well, not slowroll) but when he checks, his hand reverts to the bluffcatcher (MAINLY) zone of say 99-JJ, and he may fold to a bluff. (So a shove w/o the goods may be +EV). Interestingly here we suppose a call of a push gets called ~70% (number may be less then that but for sake of argument that's how i presented the argument) but on the river once they check, given we called the turn, a call of the push will be called alot less since we have more information to work with. say, 30% or so. which means a bluff may provide slight +EV, further increasing our earn from a turn call.

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Also, in the AQ hand, i'd call a reraise and c/r all-in on most flops. Don't mess with me TAG/LAG button!

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haha i think thats not bad, id do the same, except switch around most to some. my frequency for AQ high moves are much less then yours.

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n hand 1, Rob wants to call for implied odds, Josh wants to fold because he's afraid of hitting and losing (although if he thinks sets are a big part of villain's range, he could just fold a pairing river flush and then he'd still be able to stack villain on non-pairing flushes since no one ever folds a set - but whatever) and I want to call because I think that our hand might be good and if it isn't a K or a T might make it good!

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I did make a mention that a king or ten may be live, but it's a very small parlay (showing down the best hand or hitting a king or ten and showing down the best hand) however, this does change our hand value, bc that small edge makes say 89c (which has neither as often) a fold but KTc a call.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Nice post. I mostly agree. Although I think the fact that our flush beats a lot of lower flushes is really what pushes KT to a call and 98 to a fold, rather than the possibility of showing down a non-flush winner. But both are definitely considerations here.

I think on hand 2, though, you're discounting too heavily a 'float' with a mid pocket pair that you will lose to, but will fold to a river bluff. I also think you're overestimating how often people are double barreling after they float the flop. I think it's very rare. And top pair will be good so often here, that I think you have to vb if you hit an ace or a Q bec they WON'T bluff again, but you will be good so often that you shouldn't just c/f.

I'd like c/f better than c/c, though, I think. Definitely on an ace. Maybe on a Q. On a Q, c/c seems reasonable.

[gimmetheloot]

just rebumping because this discussion on hand 2 really has me thinking some things over.

[TheWorstPlayer]

bump so bobbo will do another one. this was v interesting to me. wish more ssnl regs participated.