Kelly Betting: Spread vs. Moneyline

[Stephen H]

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First, the Kelly formula is a maximum of a growth function for your bankroll. The main thing to remember is to use log() of your growth (no I can't explain why, but that's the function to maximize).

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The Kelly criterion maximizes the geometric mean of your bankroll, which can be calculated using the natural log, so that is why. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

As for simultaneous bets, checkout Ganchrow's stuff at SBRForum:

http://www.sbrforum.com/Betting+Tool...alculator.aspx

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That's pretty freakin' cool. Wish I'd read this reply before hacking about with a simplified 8-identical bet model.
I have to admit I didn't even consider adding in parlay bets, which changes things significantly.