Oil Futures at Bodog.

[cefis21]

Oil futures are up at Bodog. Closing price $102.75 on Dec 31 plus gas props. Need an expert analysis.

[thing85]

Well, I don't know how to read futures markets well so take this with a huge grain of salt, but here are the current oil futures prices:

Dec 2007 - $95.90
Jan 2008 - $94.92

Source: http://www.nymex.com/lsco_fut_cso.aspx

Again, I could be misinterpreting this, but the under $102.75 for -120 seems like a decent play.

[Stephen H]

I have to wonder if there's an arb to be had with betting on bodog + investing in the market.

[thing85]

Max bet for Bodog is $50, so even if there is, it wouldn't be worth it.

[cefis21]

Thanks for the reply Thing that's exactly what I was looking for. I was hoping that you were the one to reply.

A future of $95 and a Bodog price of $102.75 is quite a difference. There would have to be a 9.2% jump to hit the over. Or us bombing Iran.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
I was hoping that you were the one to reply.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not so sure about this considering my relative lack of knowledge about financial derivatives. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Stephen H]

Given the large minimums to participating in the market, the arb comment is mostly just a funny thought to me.

From a serious perspective, I would recommend comparing oil future prices from 2 months out to prices at the time the delivery date hit - for example, look at October oil future prices from august, and see how they moved. I believe futures are expected to be somewhat lower than the eventual trading cost of the time, but I don't have any idea how much lower. If the number turns out to be around 5%, then the difference isn't that big and maybe the juice on the bet makes it not worth it.

[silentbob]

Interestingly, one of the other props is when the price of oil will surpass $100. The odds offered seem to suggest that it will happen before the end of 2007, given that Bodog is offering +900 that it will happen after December 28.

Obviously, the fact that the price is likely to surpass $100 before the end of 2007 (at least based on the odds) says nothing about where the price will be on December 31, but there seems to be at least some disconnect in my mind.

Maybe an expert can weigh in and set us straight. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jafeather]

[ QUOTE ]
Bodog is offering +900 that it will happen after December 28.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's got to be some value in this...doesn't there?

[dudeimstoked]

i like the under and after dec 28.