How often is this a bluff? - Page 3

ronitonline · #21 10-12-2007, 05:34 PM

Alobar what the hell are you talking about?
What is there to BLUFF with?
do you consider him betting with the best hand here a bluff?
if hes betting this turn with JJ/QQ/KK is that a bluff? im so [censored] confused, what the [censored] are you talking about?

Alobar · #22 10-12-2007, 06:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Alobar what the hell are you talking about?
What is there to BLUFF with?
do you consider him betting with the best hand here a bluff?
if hes betting this turn with JJ/QQ/KK is that a bluff? im so [censored] confused, what the [censored] are you talking about?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hes not betting KK here, or QQ, if hes betting JJ then yeah I think he he think's He's bluffing with it.

I guess im not doing a good enough job explaining my thought process here (tho, the most likely scenerio is I suck and just arent making any sense).

When he calls PF I think hes most likely got a PP or AQs, I think hes more apt to 4 bet AKs and AKo tho I see people call with AKo, but anyway. When he calls My flop bet, any dry Ace is out. If he had the suited spades AQ I think hes raising it. I think hes c/r AA and KK and QQ. Maybe hes nitty and just calling JJ cuz hes scared. I think he could have TT 99 or 88 as well. Then he donks turn. If he didnt c/r AA-QQ his turn donk makes not much sense. So I think hes got 99, or hes "bluffing" with TT or 88. Maybe he got bored and called PF with 77 and has that too. Mix in the kinda weird size of the turn bet and I think its even more likely to be this range cuz it would make sense both as a bluff (not risking a lot) and with 99 (wants me to call)

So theres 3 combos he beats me with and more than that I beat. But obviously hes not always bluffng so when they get discounted I think its close. But I have no idea how often hands like this get bluffed cuz Ive got barely any NL experience. If all of this is complete horse [censored] and retarded, please tell me so. Im here to learn.

ronitonline · #23 10-12-2007, 06:10 PM

I understand that you are talking about him thinking hes bluffing / not sure if he has the best hand but pushing it.
However you are acting as if you want to call as a bluff-catcher, which any hand he is "bluffing" with still beats you IMO so I don't get what you're asking, can you raise here profitably as a bluff? Cause calling his "bluffing" hands is still obv -EV cause more hands hes "bluffing" with still beat you.

I keep saying "bluffing" cause I'm using your view that he thinks hes bluffing even tho he actually has the best hand.

Alobar · #24 10-12-2007, 06:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Cause calling his "bluffing" hands is still obv -EV cause more hands hes "bluffing" with still beat you.

[/ QUOTE ]

But I dont think that's true. He's not betting KK here, and likely not QQ (only hand he can hope to fold is KK which isnt enough of my range to make it profitable), I doubt its JJ either for the same reasons. TT maybe but there is only one combo of that. If hes got 88 tho I think its good. If ive got a KK-TT and he thinks I might fold it thats 24 combos he folds out. Hes getting 3.3:1 on his "bluff" and think my range of hands im calling with vs folding with (that have him beat) is small enough that its prolly a profitable play

Pokey · #25 10-12-2007, 06:21 PM

It surely looks to me as though villain has us beaten, but isn't sure of it.

I'd say the most likely hands for villain are JJ-KK. Preflop villain decided to slowplay, or wasn't 100% sure if his KK was good, and decided to see what the flop brought. On the flop, he check/called to trap with his overpair. On the turn the ace scares him so he blocks. Alternatively, villain's small bet will leave only 1/2-pot on the river, which is an easy crying call for you. That could be power with AA or A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

In short, it's hard to say EXACTLY what villain has, but whatever it is it's not folding and it beats you. Your three-bet was light, and his call of it wasn't. Also, the only hand in his range that you were ahead of just caught up. Time to let it go.

traz · #26 10-12-2007, 06:26 PM

Alobar,

His turn bet could definitely be worse than AK, but better than TT. Consider it a turn blocking bet.

Alobar · #27 10-12-2007, 06:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Alobar,

His turn bet could definitely be worse than AK, but better than TT. Consider it a turn blocking bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you explain to me the logic behind a bet like that cuz I dont quite understand it. He's blocking cuz hes scared im gunna hammer again on the scare card with a hand he beats and he doesnt wanna call a big bet, right? But if he's commited to the pot anyway, what does it matter? Wouldnt he rather I fired a big second barrell, since hes calling anyway, and now I might fold hands he has beat to his block bet?

Bramsterdam · #28 10-12-2007, 06:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Wouldnt he rather I fired a big second barrell, since hes calling anyway

[/ QUOTE ]I don't think you're assumption is correct. Villain might (will?) fold JJ-KK in this spot (biggest part of his range I think), but he doesn't like it, so he's making a blocker.

Bluffraise if you wan't to get fancy, standard play is to fold.

Imrahil · #29 10-12-2007, 06:47 PM

I really want to shove here.

ronitonline · #30 10-12-2007, 07:21 PM

To me you are being totally illogical, you say hes bluffing here a lot yet you rule out almost every hand he could be bluffing with. That's just plain out dumb. You basically are trying to say villian has 88 here more then JJ-KK/AK/AQs and you are wrong.