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  #1  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:03 PM
SquirtySquirt SquirtySquirt is offline
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Default I\'m Gonna Bluff ~ Maybe? NL10

Villian is running 43/10/1 over 100 hands and not that good. I have been pretty aggro 24/19/4 but not had to showdown any weak hands to this point. I usually run around 17/12

Preflop is meh ~ I have been trying to be more aggro.Turn I figure I am beat and take a free card then he donks river.

His small donk bets were screaming I have a weak pair or missed draw. Whats my success with say a 2.50 raise on the river?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

SB ($9.90)
BB ($12.20)
UTG ($14.25)
MP ($9.90)
CO ($11.10)
Hero ($11)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.4</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $0.30.

Flop: ($0.85) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $0.3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, BB calls $1.20.

Turn: ($3.85) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: ($3.85) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $0.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ??
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  #2  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:06 PM
bsball8806 bsball8806 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m Gonna Bluff ~ Maybe? NL10

don't bluff calling stations. I can see him calling with a 7 or a 9 here, maybe even a 6.
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  #3  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:20 PM
stever1k stever1k is offline
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Default Re: I\'m Gonna Bluff ~ Maybe? NL10

The question should be: which hand do you want to represent here? 33 for a set, A5 for the straight? Then, how much do you want to raise? 1.50, would be a joke he can call you all day long getting morgen than 12:1 with 9x or whatever.

So, I would not try to bluff here.
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  #4  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:24 PM
thoman8r thoman8r is offline
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Default Re: I\'m Gonna Bluff ~ Maybe? NL10

First off, Q8o is trash. Fold PF, esp. with this passive station in the blinds.

On the flop, a passive player leads out so I'm guessing you've got zero fold equity here. Just call. On the turn, you actually missed your one opportunity to bluff but checking behind is also ok. Just fold the river.
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  #5  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:28 PM
choccypie choccypie is offline
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Default Re: I\'m Gonna Bluff ~ Maybe? NL10

Fold pf. If I have stations in the blinds I tend to tighten up in BTN/CO because I know they'll call me with any 2 trash.

There is like 0 value in bluffing calling stations, I mean if they folded, then they wouldn't be stations. So don't bluff.
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  #6  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:37 PM
DawnToDusk DawnToDusk is offline
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Default Re: I\'m Gonna Bluff ~ Maybe? NL10

Just want to comment on PF for a second (Im sure you don't want to talk about it) but I'm trying to be more aggro too. If you know that the player is weak and will fold hands to big bets then I can see some sense in raising this hand. Raising gets us more money when our villain folds PF to the big bets. In fact it shouldn't really matter what two cards you hold if the player is like that. Just using some good old hand reading so making playing this player profitable. You can hammer him when you think hes weak and when he isn't you can lay off. So with that being said why did you decide to pick Q8o to raise PF with? I feel like with stats like the ones that he has we are going to want stronger hands PF to extract the most value from him. For example 78s+, J9s+, JQ+, and 55+. Don't get me wrong. I have a much wider raising range PF but agains this player I just don't think hands like Q8o will extract enough value from him postflop to make a PF raise profitable.

Anyways I think on the river I just fold. Your analysis seems spot on with what he is holding on the river. But the fact that you raised on the flop and he called makes me think he could be making a donk bet for value on the river with a set or something. In fact if I were you I might just call here. It cost .50 more and you might be able to get some information that can help you make a profitable move on the river against this villain in the future. But thats just me.
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  #7  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:46 PM
jocke4 jocke4 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m Gonna Bluff ~ Maybe? NL10

since he did this: BB bets $0.3, Hero raises to $1.5, BB calls $1.20.
I wouldn't do this: BB bets $0.5, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2.50.
I would do this: BB bets $0.5, Hero folds

and pick another spot to ship his monies to my stack.
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  #8  
Old 11-30-2007, 05:59 PM
CrAcK_N_CoKe CrAcK_N_CoKe is offline
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Default Re: I\'m Gonna Bluff ~ Maybe? NL10

dont bluff and this hand is very ugly to raise pre-flop even if you're playing super LAG this should be the kind of hand you throw away.
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  #9  
Old 11-30-2007, 06:54 PM
LOwrestling2001 LOwrestling2001 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m Gonna Bluff ~ Maybe? NL10

there is nothing wrong with raising Q8o on the btn as long as you don't get married to TP bad kicker.
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  #10  
Old 11-30-2007, 06:56 PM
bsball8806 bsball8806 is offline
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Default Re: I\'m Gonna Bluff ~ Maybe? NL10

the question isn't whether raising Q8o on the btn is a bad decision. The issue is that we should never be trying to bluff LP players known to be calling stations.
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