Spin Off Logic Problem From Genius-Religion Debate

[David Sklansky]

Regardless of the subject, what are we to make of the fact that, lets say, the percentage of people with an IQ of x who believe Y to be true, is x/6? This is a statistic after a survey. Not a scientific formula

Of course we must stipulate that the above statistic is not known to anybody before they come to their conclusion about Y.

Since no one has an IQ of 300, there is no group of people who are better than even money to believe Y. And there is no guarantee that the formula would hold for them anyway. Of the very smartest people alive about 30% believe Y. In other word even among the very smartest people, at least 70% believe Y isn't true. (Remember again that the results of this survey were not known when opinions were first expressed.)

On the other hand there is the unmistakable pattern that the smarter you are, the more likely you are to believe Y.

Armed with this information, but with no information as to what Y is about, are you justified in believing that Y is probably true?

PS To avoid muddying the waters, I will specify that anyone who believes Y to be true does so with the same degree of high certainty. Likewise those who don't believe Y. Perhaps 95%.