50NL - 75o flops two pair, line check

[choccypie]

I put him on 89, flopped a gutshot SD and turned another gutshot. River made his straight so he shoved.

[bgott224]

I would bet more on the turn, and c/c river.

As played I don't see what he's c/r you with here that you beat. Easy fold, IMO.

[Willem]

Thanks for the replies. Villain did indeed have 89, which was quite a surprise to me. Shows what I know... Also, my read on SB was prolly a bit off.

[eurythmech]

...and here I was thinking 64

[Chomp]

I hardly ever base my river decision here on villain's range in as precise a way as other posters in this thread are. IMO it is not necessary and way overcomplicating the decison.

Much more important IMO is villain's image and the action in the hand. Put those together and I think this is a stupendously easy fold. I don't think it's within a million miles of being close.

This kind of "big picture" element to the hand is so clear IMO that it is not necessary to make a decision based on a marginal "small picture" element of the hand (namely, estimating a precise range). If you try to make that precise a judgment it is easy to get it a little bit wrong, but lose a lot of money.

I think this also reminds me of one of M&S Concepts, along the lines of: the best piece of information you have at any given moment is the bet just gone in, and it should take precedence in your decision. As this isn't a bluff with a worse hand, I think that reinforces the fold.

I like how hero played hand up to river call.

Opinion not advice, as I suck every day for hours on end.

[kurto]

btw- villain's play isn't so bad if he knows he's getting a lot more on the river. He's got 8 outs. he's got to call $3 into a $10.50 pot. He needs about another $14 from one of the two of you if he hits. Not so hard to believe with 2 people calling.

Considering he made an additional $36 after only putting in $3 on the turn... villain's play can't really be faulted. (unless he has absolutely no reason to beleive he'll make this kind of money)