DERB - Page 21

DcifrThs · #**201** 05-06-2005, 01:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I estimate that it is a terrible overcall. Worth a good steak dinner at least.

5 x 4 = 20 = 10
3 x 1 = 3 = 1.5
3 x 1 = 3
2 x 1 = 2

you'll be good about 1 in 50.

16.5 BB * 1 = 16.5
-1 * 49 = -49

-32.5 / 50 = -.65 BB

[/ QUOTE ]

what about the calls you save by not being bluffed at? what about POTS you save by not folding to bluffs because you get checked to w/ hands you might fold in marginal heads up river confrontations?

-Barron

adios · #**202** 05-06-2005, 01:07 PM

Notice you don't support the notion that the EV is -1 BB. The pot is laying you such a price that if you lose 94% of the time or less it's +EV. You claim that the overcall will lose at best 98% of the time. How accurate are your estimates and how do you know how accurate they are? Personally I don't think mine are accurate enough to be precise in distinguishing between 94% of the time and 98% with any degree of certainty. But I'm a pedestrian player.

brick · #**203** 05-06-2005, 01:15 PM

It was three way. There was an over call. They will never know what you had.
There is no reason to call for meta-game reasons here.

brick · #**204** 05-06-2005, 01:18 PM

That's right. I think hero will lose 98, 99 or 100% of the time. He's not winning 90% or 95% of the time here.

EDIT: you asked how confident.
I'm 95% sure he will be beat 98-100%.
5% of the time will be beat 90-95%.

adios · #**205** 05-06-2005, 01:25 PM

You didn't answer my question though. How accurate are your estimates and how do you know how accurate they are? I've asked this question for years when people make these claims that they can be highly accurate in their estimates of these situations where the pot is laying them a big price. I've never gotten straight answers to these seemingly simple questions. The truth is you probably can't distinguish to an degree of certaintly between 95% of the time and 98% of the time.

etizzle · #**206** 05-06-2005, 01:36 PM

not when James coldcaps from the SB and bets every street.

etizzle · #**207** 05-06-2005, 01:43 PM

Adios, I have a strong suspicion that if you check James's PT database and filter for those times that he cold capped out of the blinds with >3 people in the hand, you will find exactly ZERO times that he will lose to AJo on this board.

He will NEVER thats right never have KQs or ATs, and if he had those hands he would also very rarely bet the river against this lineup.

Overcalling the river here has EXACTLY -1 BB ev. AJo will never ever win with this specific action.

adios · #**208** 05-06-2005, 01:48 PM

I suggest that there always is at least some uncertainty even though if it's 1,000,000 - 1 against. It's not a cinch that the Sun will rise in the east tomorrow morning either [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Let me say that I respect your point, I respect the way you presented it and FWIW I think it's a valid one. I will say though that I'll bet that the number of times this situation arose is small i.e. the sample size is small.

etizzle · #**209** 05-06-2005, 01:52 PM

well thanks, and i suppose there is always some possibility of a misclick [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Justin A · #**210** 05-06-2005, 02:05 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Now that's funny. Overcalling the river has an EV of -1 big bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Like I said, not even a clue how to estimate it.

- Andrew

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Uh huh. AJo is a loser 100% of the time against James and a caller here with this action. If you're talking about metagame, then you're very very wrong.