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#1
03-13-2007, 01:10 PM
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Faults in my math? (easy one)
Hi! Let's say that I have a flus draw on the flop and gets all-in, then I say that it is:
(9/47)+(9/46)=0,387141....... That's quite right, right? But what if I had 5 cards to go after the flop? (means it's 9 cards total on the table which you can use) That would make: (9/47)+(9/46)+(9/45)+(9/44)+(9/43)=1,000989..... That would make 100%. You can not say that it is 100% since sometimes it will come a table that ain't got a third club, spade, diamond or heart. How does that go around? Or am I wrong somehow? 
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#2
03-13-2007, 01:31 PM
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Re: Faults in my math? (easy one)
[ QUOTE ]
Hi! Let's say that I have a flus draw on the flop and gets all-in, then I say that it is: (9/47)+(9/46)=0,387141....... That's quite right, right? [/ QUOTE ] No. Principle of Inclusion-Exclusion
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#3
03-13-2007, 01:42 PM
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Re: Faults in my math? (easy one)
I'm sorry I haven't got to that math-level in school and will probably never do. (But I'm willing to learn since I've got very easy to learn math).
Could you make a practical example with a couple of cards, and then another example with like a dice or something, then I could probably figure out what all the things means by myself. Thanks for the link though, I got a small part of it.
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#4
03-13-2007, 04:11 PM
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Re: Faults in my math? (easy one)
[ QUOTE ]
Hi! Let's say that I have a flus draw on the flop and gets all-in, then I say that it is: (9/47)+(9/46)=0,387141....... That's quite right, right? [/ QUOTE ] Wrong. It is 9/47 + (1-9/47)*9/46. The 9/46 only applies to the times that you miss on the turn since the 9/47 already accounts for the times that you hit on the turn, so you must multiply 9/46 by the probability of missing on the turn (1-9/47). This gives P(hit on the turn) + P(miss on the turn AND hit on the river). This post gives 3 correct methods for the flush draw problem. Method 3 is the inclusion-exclusion principle.
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