Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Other Poker > Heads Up Poker

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #61  
Old 11-03-2007, 10:46 AM
Majik Majik is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 201
Default Re: Swings in NLCASH

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I award TNixon the winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Though my word means squat [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

But Jay has said more stuff that makes no sense
Reply With Quote
  #62  
Old 11-03-2007, 12:30 PM
jay_shark jay_shark is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,277
Default Re: Swings in NLCASH

What doesn't make sense ?

Your clever tricks do not impress me .

There will be no more discussion in this thread on my part after this .
If you're desperate for an answer you could have pm'ed me or even asked one of the experts in the probability forum .

Tnixon already posted his side of the argument (in the probability forum) and was told that he was wrong from one of the most highly respected statisticians in this forum .

Jason1990's solution gives you the probability that you will achieve a downswing of size x commencing after time t .
This is very different from dropping x buy-ins commencing from t=0 . In other words , Jason's solution determines the probability that you have a downswing of b big blinds commencing from some t for t>=0 . This means you can have a downswing of size b after you've already accumulated some positive amount to your bankroll .

Op was interested in the likelihood of dropping x buy-ins in a typical cash game . The risk of ruin calculations can help determine the likelihood of such an even occurring .

For a player with a win-rate of 8ptbb/100 hands and a s.d of 60ptbb/100 hands , your risk of dropping 10 buy-ins (100 big blinds) should be :

e^(-500*2*8)/(60^2) ~ 10.83% which is fairly high and so 10 buy-ins should NOT be recommended .

Watch what happens if we increase our bankroll to 1000 big bets or 2000 big blinds .

e^(-1000*2*8/60^2) ~ 1.17% .

So this means that if we have 20 buy-ins for a cash game with the aforementioned win-rate and standard deviation , then the chance of ever going bust is about 1% ; big difference from playing with only 10 buy-ins .
Reply With Quote
  #63  
Old 11-03-2007, 03:12 PM
TNixon TNixon is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 616
Default Re: Swings in NLCASH

Good god. Please make it stop.

How can you *really* be so far off, after *so* much explanation.

[ QUOTE ]
Tnixon already posted his side of the argument (in the probability forum) and was told that he was wrong from one of the most highly respected statisticians in this forum .

[/ QUOTE ]

Seriously, WTF are you even talking about here? Do you even know? Did you actually even read the thread?

He certainly did tell me I was very wrong about *something*, that is absolutely true. In the thread you're talking about, I attempted to come up with a method for measuring the chance of a drop of size X, based on something somebody else had said previously.

That method (for reasons that I understand perfectly now) was a completely hopeless waste of time, and even attempting it was a complete brainfart on my part.

*That* is what your expert from the probability forum told me I was wrong about.

Which also has ABSOLUTELY NO BEARING WHATSOEVER on anything I've said in this thread, because I didn't claim that particular method was valid, or use it at any point.

[ QUOTE ]
Jason1990's solution gives you the probability that you will achieve a downswing of size x commencing after time t .
This is very different from dropping x buy-ins commencing from t=0 .

[/ QUOTE ]

I applied Jason199's solution in EXACTLY the same way he did, answering EXACTLY the same question, and he himself agreed that I applied the solution correctly.

[ QUOTE ]
In other words , Jason's solution determines the probability that you have a downswing of b big blinds commencing from some t for t>=0 . This means you can have a downswing of size b after you've already accumulated some positive amount to your bankroll .

[/ QUOTE ]

Which is EXACTLY the question being asked. How much more clear can this really be?

When asking "what are the odds of having an X buyin downswing over 10k hands", we're not asking if the drop STARTS at the beginning. Just if there's one of that size AT SOME POINT.

The fact that you *still* don't seem to understand this, despite the fact that it's been stated explicitly probably half a dozen times now, just completely boggles me.

[ QUOTE ]
Your clever tricks do not impress me .

[/ QUOTE ]
I am completely in awe of *your* "clever" tricks.

I have made many attempts to un-confuse you (you STILL don't understand the question being asked), and you are thicker than any brick wall I've ever heard of.

You, on the other hand, keep restating the same things, in the face of new evidence (I've proved in terms that even you should be able to understand that the risk of ruin is *not* a good approximation for the chance of a drop over X hands), with absolutely zero backing for any of them, except for claims that "the experts at the probability forum have already told you you're wrong", when what I was told I was wrong about has nothing to whatsoever with anything I've said in this thread.

I honestly do not understand how somebody can be so pigheaded, while being so utterly wrong.

I mean, you still don't understand the question we're trying to answer here, for hell's sake.

[ QUOTE ]
There will be no more discussion in this thread on my part after this .

[/ QUOTE ]

This is probably a very good thing.

Everything you've said so far in this thread has been either explicitly disproved (that RoR calculations can be used to approximate the chance of a drop), or has been so completely incorrect and hopelessly baseless (that I was told I was "wrong" by an expert in the probability forum, when what I was "wrong" about was something that hasn't even been brought into this discussion), that by now, it has to be absolutely clear to anybody who is still reading that you truly have reached a new plateau of stubborn idiocy here.

You can't quit while you're ahead (because you're so far behind in understanding here that it's starting to make me ill), but you can, and should, stop digging the hole deeper.
Reply With Quote
  #64  
Old 11-03-2007, 03:56 PM
jay_shark jay_shark is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,277
Default Re: Swings in NLCASH

[ QUOTE ]
Can anyone with experience comment on swings/variance in headsup cash games? I'm a sixmax player and have 5-7 buyin downswings with the occasional 10-12 buyin downer. How much 'worse' can I expect it to be in headsup? Thanks for any advice...

[/ QUOTE ]

Tnixon , you need to learn how to read the original post .

Take a deep breath and start with the very first question he addressed . Your standard deviation , which is the square root of variance , is going to be larger than 100 big blinds/100 hands for the typical player . So this means ,with a win-rate of 8ptbb/100 hands and a s.d of 60ptbb/100 hands there is a 68% chance that you will win between 16-120 to 16+120 big blinds in your first 100 hands .

Read the second question carefully .
"how much 'worse' can I expect it to be heads up ? "

Where the [censored] does it say he wants to know the probability of dropping x buy-ins after some time t>=0 ?

You should go read Hooked on Phonics because it may do you some good .
Reply With Quote
  #65  
Old 11-03-2007, 04:17 PM
jay_shark jay_shark is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,277
Default Re: Swings in NLCASH

[ QUOTE ]


Which is EXACTLY the question being asked. How much more clear can this really be?



[/ QUOTE ]

I think you need to read the original post again . Please quote the two questions he addressed .

Once you do this , tell me the "exact" question he wants to know .

I find it funny that you've created an imaginary question of your own concern .
Reply With Quote
  #66  
Old 11-03-2007, 04:18 PM
sweetjazz sweetjazz is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 3,700
Default Re: Swings in NLCASH

To the former Red Sox and current Indian:

He who argues with a fool makes it two.
Reply With Quote
  #67  
Old 11-03-2007, 04:24 PM
TNixon TNixon is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 616
Default Re: Swings in NLCASH

[ QUOTE ]
Tnixon , you need to learn how to read the original post .

[/ QUOTE ]
You need to read the original post, and then read the rest of them, and then learn to UNDERSTAND what people are actually asking. Seriously, your reading comprehension sucks major ass.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a sixmax player and have 5-7 buyin downswings with the occasional 10-12 buyin downer. How much 'worse' can I expect it to be in headsup?

[/ QUOTE ]

That is quite clearly a question about how drastic downswings can be, and the question was quite clearly framed in terms of "X buyin downswings".

Furthermore, even if by some amazing miracle, that question wasn't actually asking how much bigger the swings can be (although how you could posssibly misread such a simple question is *completely* beyond me) there have been many other posts in the thread that are obviously quite specifically talking about the odds of downswings over a period of time. You have tried to answer those questions using RoR calculations, but there are really two possible questions here:

#1: What are the chances that I'm going to have a 20 buyin downswing starting RIGHT NOW.

#2: What are the chance of having a 20 buyin downswing starting at any point over the next X hands.

RoR is actually an upper bound on the answer to question one, and that is apparently the question you keep answering repeatedly.

However, not only is question #1 not what people generally mean when asking about downswings, but it is completely inappropriate to try to answer questions about the frequency of 20BI downswings (such as how likely it is to have at least one per month, which is another specific situation that has been mentioned).

You keep giving an answer to question #1, but that IS NOT THE QUESTION AT HAND. Nobody gives a [censored] if the downswing starts NOW. They care if it's going to happen at *any* point over the next X number of hands.

Lets say we want to know how likely it is to have a 20 buyin downswing over the next 1500 hands. If we go up for 1k hands, and *then* start a 20 buyin downswing that lasts 500 hands, that is still a 20 buyin downswing at some point in the next 1500 hands even though it didn't start at the beginning of the 1500 hands.

And this is exactly where your complete lack of comprehension comes in.

In the past, you've said that I'm not very good at making myself clear.

But it honestly does not get any more clear than this. If you still cannot understand why you are completely off-base, and have been through this entire thread, then the problem is not my lack of clarity, it's YOUR lack of understanding and comprehension.

But since you're so convinced you know what the original post was asking, and that you've sufficiently answered, lets ask?

Juggernaut, if you're still around (which is highly unlikely), could you please comment on whether Question #1 or #2 is more relevant to what you were asking to begin with?

I know the answer, but apparently jay_shark needs to hear it from somebody other than me. Which makes some amount of sense, because I've made the price of admission *very* high by now.
Reply With Quote
  #68  
Old 11-03-2007, 04:25 PM
dying2win dying2win is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: [censored]
Posts: 475
Default Re: Swings in NLCASH

lol
Reply With Quote
  #69  
Old 11-03-2007, 04:26 PM
TNixon TNixon is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 616
Default Re: Swings in NLCASH

[ QUOTE ]
To the former Red Sox and current Indian:

He who argues with a fool makes it two.

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I just keep thinking that at some point, everything's going to click for jay_shark, and he will realize what a complete [censored] idiot and jackass he's been here.

Obviously I should just give up, because it's simply not going to happen.
Reply With Quote
  #70  
Old 11-03-2007, 04:29 PM
TNixon TNixon is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 616
Default Re: Swings in NLCASH

[ QUOTE ]
I find it funny that you've created an imaginary question of your own concern .

[/ QUOTE ]
And I find it rather sad that *you* are the one who has actually done that, but that you are completely incapable of realizing that fact.

Obviously you are the one with a very different view of what people generally mean when they're asking about the frequency and size of swings.
Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:19 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.