$2/$4 RAZZ A24 6th street decision

[ChipsAhoya]

Razz ($2/$4), Ante $0.40, Bring-In $0.50 (converter)

The pot was big enough to take another card off on 4th street, and luckily for me both people caught bad on 5th, although I didn't catch great. I figured closing the action and getting 7.5:1 that I could take another card off.

Since I have A234(9) on 6th street, should I raise to try to get the pair to fold behind me, or just call since I'm obviously behind; since there isn't a great chance the 8 paired seat four, who raised into 6 low cards on 3rd street?

3rd Street - (1.60 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds

Seat 2: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___folds

Seat 3: xx xx K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___folds

Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___completes___calls

Seat 5: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds

Seat 6: xx xx A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___raises

Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls


4th Street - (7.85 SB)


Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets


5th Street - (5.43 BB)


Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___bets


6th Street - (8.43 BB)


Seat 4: xx xx 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets

Hero: 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___ ... ??

Seat 8: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Thanks,
ChipsAhoya

[Andy B]

I think this is a call. If you raise, I don't think that the guy behind you is going to fold anything you want him to fold.

[Bremen]

[ QUOTE ]
The pot was big enough to take another card off on 4th street,

[/ QUOTE ]
No it wasn't. HU you can definitly peel, however your odds get much much worse adding in the second player. The reason being you now need TWO players to catch bad while you catch good. And then you're only even at best.

[Andy B]

He's getting almost 10:1 and his call closes the action on fourth. This ain't my game, but I can't see folding here.

[lostnorcalkid]

I really can't see folding here at all... you have the wheel draw, so unless the bettor has the A2346 made, if you hit a 5 you are golden and a 6 you are probably good... you are also good here with a 7 or 8 as long as he doesn't improve or doesn't already have a made 8 low... 10 to 1 odds this is an easy call...

[*TT*]

Fold 5th street. As played call on 6th - your a dog.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold 5th street. As played call on 6th - your a dog.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Before you throw your hand away getting 7.5:1 PO, you'd better be damn sure you have almost no chance to win. Ask yourself why seat 4 let you come again for a single bet on BOTH 4th and 5th sts. Even if he is an advanced player and was trying to slowplay on 4th it seems unlikely to me that he would do the same on 5th when you've shown you're willing to call a single bet and now he's caught bad. (Plus this is a 2/4 table, how many advanced players do you expect to see there?) You have to read him to have started with a 3-card hand since he completed UTG, but it's not necessarily a monster since he could easily have seen a playable hand and completed without looking at the other door cards. His passiveness on 4th and 5th leads me to believe he either started with a 6, 7, or 8 in the hole.

If he has a 6, he has paired 4th; a 7 and you're the dog you think you are; an 8 he paired on 6th. All of these possibilities would explain his passiveness and would be consistent with him betting out on 6th with his board. There are only two 8's and one 6 left in the deck, but all four 7's. I agree with Andy that seat 8 almost definitely has a 6 draw and will not fold even if you guys cap 6th st. Let's see what all this adds up to on 6th st.

There are 3 chances in 7 that seat 4 paired (where you have 56% eq) and the other 4 that he has an 876 and you have ~25% eq.

(3/7)(56%) + (4/7)(25%) = 38% average eq

We're assuming tho that seat 8 is coming again no matter what, so you only need to have 33% eq to make a bet or raise profitable. It's probably even more correct if seat 8 will sometimes fold.

SO in fact a raise in this spot is a VALUE RAISE and is definitely CORRECT.

Excellent post Chips, you seem to always come up with the best ones [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ChipsAhoya]

[ QUOTE ]
He's getting almost 10:1 and his call closes the action on fourth. This ain't my game, but I can't see folding here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran a simulation with my hand vs. these two hands w/ random downcards eight or lower. With the dead aces, I actually have 26% equity vs. this range, and I do not face a raise. I understand Sklansky's 'horse race' idea, but the pot is very large here and I can't fold getting 10:1. Even if they have 765s each, I'm now 15%, which I can still profitably call.

TT, on 5th street, I'm still 17% vs. two J765s.. I only need 13% equity to call and I have it.

That's good analysis, SG. This is the HORSE game on FTP, and at $1/$2 and $2/$4, people will call w/ tens up sometimes and often nines up, even for a completion on third street. I called a hand last night w/ (J2)5 because all of the 2s and 5s were dead, but no one knew I had a jack until I won the hand. I agree that seat four has a better chance than usual to have a 6, 7, or 8 in the hole.

My 9 perfect is for sure better than seat 8's hand, even if he has a J632A. I wonder what chance we should include that seat 4 has a better hand, because he might, but it is a big coup is seat 8 folds his 6 draw, and if he doesn't fold, he loses money on the bets that go in vs. a (made?) 8 and a wheel draw, although is correct to do so due to the size of the pot.

I did in fact raise in the hand, seat 8 called two bets cold, and then the 8 three-bet. Since that signaled a made eight to me for sure, since my 9 was up, I just called and so did seat 8 again.

On the river, I caught a queen; the 6 draw bet, and the 8 called. Even though I was getting 20:1, I decided I couldn't overcall with my nine. If the 8 had somehow been bluff 3-betting on 6th street, he would not have called without the eight made on the river. Standard?

-ChipsAhoya

[ChipsAhoya]

[ QUOTE ]
Excellent post Chips, you seem to always come up with the best ones [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks! I hope to be contributing here on a more regular basis now that I'm finding more time to play this semester...

-ChipsAhoya

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]

That's good analysis, SG. This is the HORSE game on FTP, and at $1/$2 and $2/$4, people will call w/ tens up sometimes and often nines up, even for a completion on third street.

On the river, I caught a queen; the 6 draw bet, and the 8 called. Even though I was getting 20:1, I decided I couldn't overcall with my nine. If the 8 had somehow been bluff 3-betting on 6th street, he would not have called without the eight made on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

ohhhh NOW you tell me it was a HORSE game. If you think Razz players don't know how to play razz, well HORSE players are even worse. They think the game is all luck and are less likely to be tricky. Also, you have to factor in the chance that one or both of your OPPs thought you were playing Stud!

Good analysis on the river too... well played... lousy break. That's razz [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]