A7ss flops NFD + OESD...

[bozlax]

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Against that we are under 50%, so the value is not there, even if the pot is huge.

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C'mon, Bella. With 15 clean outs Hero is 54% on the flop, plus he gets an 1-1.5 outs for the overcard! Plus also, the size of the pot has nothing to do with value. You know these things.

The flop is an easy cap. Having done that I'm betting the turn when checked to, regardless of what falls, unless there's a read that Villan is prone to turn c/r's. Free showdown > free turn card in a hand with this much equity.

[Aaron W.]

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Against that we are under 50%, so the value is not there, even if the pot is huge.

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C'mon, Bella. With 15 clean outs Hero is 54% on the flop, plus he gets an 1-1.5 outs for the overcard! Plus also, the size of the pot has nothing to do with value. You know these things.

The flop is an easy cap. Having done that I'm betting the turn when checked to, regardless of what falls, unless there's a read that Villan is prone to turn c/r's. Free showdown > free turn card in a hand with this much equity.

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If villain isn't the type to check-call a scare card, I like to save the extra raise for *AFTER* I hit my big draw. One extra SB @ 55% equity is worth much less than one extra BB @ 99% equity.

[BadBigBabar]

yea, this is basic stuff of not killing our implied odds

[BadBigBabar]

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Free showdown > free turn card in a hand with this much equity.

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that's wrong also, considering that we are drawing to all sorts of things yet only have ace high

[Xhad]

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The flop is an easy cap. Having done that I'm betting the turn when checked to, regardless of what falls, unless there's a read that Villan is prone to turn c/r's. Free showdown > free turn card in a hand with this much equity.

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Your hand has close to zero showdown value. Reads or no reads, betting a brick turn is just charging yourself to draw.

[tiltaholic]

sometimes i'll raise this pf.

[Harv72b]

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If villain isn't the type to check-call a scare card, I like to save the extra raise for *AFTER* I hit my big draw. One extra SB @ 55% equity is worth much less than one extra BB @ 99% equity.

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I don't think this is one of those cases where you can look at the hand in isolation. Aside from the immediate value of a flop cap (and the potential for getting a free card), the metagame value of capping the flop holding "just" a draw can earn us quite a bit on future hands in the same session. I think that this thread proves that a lot of players at these stakes simply don't understand just how big a draw we flopped here, and how strong our drawing hand is.

And of course, you can argue that 1 extra SB at 55% equity is worth a hell of a lot more than 1 extra SB at 34% equity, which is what we're paying if we flat call the flop 3bet & call a big bet when we brick the turn (that's giving villain AA). Not to mention that capping the flop actually does a better job of disguising our hand than 3betting & calling, especially if we end up hitting on the river vs. the turn.

[bellatrix]

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Against that we are under 50%, so the value is not there, even if the pot is huge.

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C'mon, Bella. With 15 clean outs Hero is 54% on the flop, plus he gets an 1-1.5 outs for the overcard! Plus also, the size of the pot has nothing to do with value. You know these things.

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Sigh, I must have screwed up my stoving somewhere, now it comes above 50%... Sorry, my bad.
Capping then is correct, I just need to get it into my system, because my obvious play here is to call... sigh.

Does the majority of people think we are good if the Ace hits on the turn or are we still drawing?

[Aaron W.]

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And of course, you can argue that 1 extra SB at 55% equity is worth a hell of a lot more than 1 extra SB at 34% equity, which is what we're paying if we flat call the flop 3bet & call a big bet when we brick the turn (that's giving villain AA). Not to mention that capping the flop actually does a better job of disguising our hand than 3betting & calling, especially if we end up hitting on the river vs. the turn.

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You could argue that, but this happens 80% of the time. So for that 80% you're talking about a 16% equity deficit on 1 SB, but then 20% of the time winning a full SB to compensate for it. It comes out basically the same.

The metagame argument is fine, and I don't dispute the potential there. But if I had a set here, I'd be calling and looking to pop the turn, and I see no reason for my made hands and big draws to be played differently.

[Harv72b]

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You could argue that, but this happens 80% of the time. So for that 80% you're talking about a 16% equity deficit on 1 SB, but then 20% of the time winning a full SB to compensate for it. It comes out basically the same.

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This assumes that he bets into you 100% of the time when you hit, which I think is being a bit generous. And this whole tangent is ignoring the possibility that you cap, hit the turn, and still get bet into.

FWIW, I usually go ahead and cap the flop with a set, too. Too many scare cards possible on the turn which kill my action, and always that possibility then that he has the big draw & will check when he misses.