TP3K with gutshot on ugly board

[ddubois]

BTN has taggy stats, but seems not-very-good. Was this the right line? I feel like there's a bunch of pair+draw hands in his range, but I don't want to call and get shown 76 either. Are you calling with AA?

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

CO: $899.20
BTN: $836.10
SB: $405.50
BB: $469
UTG: $386.80
Hero (MP): $433.75

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $14</font>, CO calls $14, BTN calls $14, 2 folds

Flop: ($48) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $39</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $39

Turn: ($126) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $99</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $783.10 and is All-In</font>, ~280 to me, Hero folds

[MDMA]

Fine.

[ArturiusX]

I think I c/f the turn. Its a pretty ugly board for you, he probably won't fold a draw if he's not very good and bluff the river, may make a move on you, and just a general [censored] situation to put chips in OOP.

[ddubois]

So what do you b/c with? Any overpair? I'm thinking QT/JJ/QQ/etc have more equity than AA/KK against any legitimate raising hands, but I don't know what to give him for a pokerstove.

[praios]

i like like you played it

[ArturiusX]

Well, I'd fold AA/KK too.

[MDMA]

Okay Arturius, did I get this straight:

You want to check/fold the turn because he likely doesnt fold a draw on turn and will likely bluff the river? M'kay.

[LucidDream]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I'd fold AA/KK too.

[/ QUOTE ]

wtf? ur always c/f'ing these kind of board textures on the turn if you think someone will bluff the river alot? this couldn't be any more exploitable.

[ArturiusX]

I've been sitting here trying to work this out. Its the kind of hand where if you had reads, it totally changes which line you'd use, and I think thats why I was thinking c/f, I was thinking of certain players. In a realistic play situation, I think bet/fold is ok. But although super exploitable, giving up here can't be terrible. We're giving him the keys to the pot, its clear by betting we have a top pair and I think it gives him the ability to out play us, if he knows we fold.

So a check-raise might be good. The trouble is, our equity ain't all that great, since there's so many semi bluffing shots here that can still catch up, and surely made hands are highly in his range too.

Arg, I hate this hand. Maybe bet/fold and focus on something else.

[yve]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I c/f the turn. Its a pretty ugly board for you, he probably won't fold a draw if he's not very good and bluff the river, may make a move on you, and just a general [censored] situation to put chips in OOP.

[/ QUOTE ]

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh