Paperchamp's NFL Week 6

[paperchamp]

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No one likes Cincy at Arrowhead or San Diego at home?

I'm impressed that you have the balls to bet the spreads as I only use teases now, but I have a question.
If you like the Jets +3 at home(I like Eagles, but grew up there so maybe Im biased on this one) why not bet the ML?
Isnt there more value in the ML for a home dog when the line is 3.5 or greater?

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It really depends on what the ML is. I haven't bet many ML's in football since Pinny left because I can usually get a better line at Skybook with my free half point.

Also, the market disagrees with my NYJ pick, I don't like that.

[dlunc3]

have you taken into factor that andy read is 8-0 comming off the bye week... and also 3-0 comming off a bye in the playoffs... that makes him 11-0.. i would recommend not touching this game if you are going toward the jets

[psuasskicker]

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No one likes Cincy at Arrowhead or San Diego at home?

[/ QUOTE ]

No and no. I'm on KC +3 for 1u and Oak +10.5 for 2u. Cinci is really bad and getting love for no reason than everyone assumes their offense is awesome and KC's whole team is horrible. SD's had one good game against Denver who's clearly not that tough a team and otherwise SD has looked pretty bad overall, and Oak is not that bad of a team. A double digit spread is WAY too high and IMO an overreaction to last week's game. SD is talented but I figured this spread to be around 7.5 or 8, not 10.5.

- C --

[psuasskicker]

[ QUOTE ]
have you taken into factor that andy read is 8-0 comming off the bye week... and also 3-0 comming off a bye in the playoffs... that makes him 11-0.. i would recommend not touching this game if you are going toward the jets

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO this holds only slightly more weight with me than reciting those stats and then saying "so they're due for a loss".

'07 Eagles <> past Eagles
That's something to take into account, but it's not that big a factor IMO.

- C -

[Caldarooni]

[ QUOTE ]
have you taken into factor that andy read is 8-0 comming off the bye week... and also 3-0 comming off a bye in the playoffs... that makes him 11-0.. i would recommend not touching this game if you are going toward the jets

[/ QUOTE ]

Someone should tell the Jets before they show up and try and win.

[kyro]

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I'm also fading the public. Both teams are off to a bad start. Public perception is that while Philly is likely to bounce back at some point, the Jets are just a horrible team and will remain that way.

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Well the public IS right. What it means linewise, I'm not good enough to know, but I'd lean Eagles.

The Jets D is bad enough that I think the Eagles can put up enough points to cover.

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
have you taken into factor that andy read is 8-0 comming off the bye week... and also 3-0 comming off a bye in the playoffs... that makes him 11-0.. i would recommend not touching this game if you are going toward the jets

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I would never take that into factor since those statistics are completely worthless.

[paperchamp]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm also fading the public. Both teams are off to a bad start. Public perception is that while Philly is likely to bounce back at some point, the Jets are just a horrible team and will remain that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the public IS right. What it means linewise, I'm not good enough to know, but I'd lean Eagles.

The Jets D is bad enough that I think the Eagles can put up enough points to cover.

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Many possibilities remain including that they are both bad teams and that the Eagles are getting unmerited credit for previous seasons performances. Also, its possible the Jets have underperformed. Public perception is often wrong.

[kyro]

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I'm also fading the public. Both teams are off to a bad start. Public perception is that while Philly is likely to bounce back at some point, the Jets are just a horrible team and will remain that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well the public IS right. What it means linewise, I'm not good enough to know, but I'd lean Eagles.

The Jets D is bad enough that I think the Eagles can put up enough points to cover.

[/ QUOTE ]

Many possibilities remain including that they are both bad teams and that the Eagles are getting unmerited credit for previous seasons performances. Also, its possible the Jets have underperformed. Public perception is often wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't say that the public was right because they're usually right. I said the public was right because they most likely are, this time. DVOA has Philly at 11th and the Jets at 30th. AFAIK, this is completely independent of prior year performance.

Philly really has one game against a weak defense. The Giants, Skins and Packers all have decent defenses. The one game the Eagles had against a weak defense, they lit them up.

The Jets just stink. It's less likely that they're underperforming this year, and more likely that they overperformed last year. I definitely think the Eagles are the better team. 6 points on a neutral field better? That I'm not positive about, but if forced to pick, I'd pick the Eagles.

[paperchamp]

I will definitely be looking to grab the under on Dallas/NE sometime on Sunday. I think there is good value on the under already but the line is probably going to keep climbing.