Paperchamp's NFL Week 4

[paperchamp]

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There wasn't a ML available yet when I made the pick. I see TheGreek has +110 now. That's pretty comparable to the +2.5 I got at skybook. Of course I don't include the free half point in my public record for obvious reasons .

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Why not? You have legitimately gotten a better line by shopping and will win or lose based on that.

I kinda like Atlanta in this game myself. In addition to Houston's injuries I think they are getting a little too much respect from the linemakers right now. Atlanta is by no means good but they outgained Carolina by a decent margin yesterday and might very well have won the game if DeAngelo Hall didn't have a meltdown(67 yds in penalties on one drive). If you had capped this game coming into the season the Falcons would have been favored by 2-3 points. Are these teams really that different now?

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I don't include it because I'm attempting to beat WA lines (at the time I post). Sometimes I get a better line then what I post here but if it's no longer at a major book, I won't post it.

I definitely think that the linemakers would have overrated Houston if they didn't have all the injuries. I would also like to note that I would not take -3.

[paperchamp]

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I like the SF pick a lot, although I haven't gone through it enough to bet it yet.

Not so keen on the HOU line, ATL passed very well this week and HOU's pass defense seems to be a potential weakness.

I also have the feeling that HOU are going to be a huge BSP pick this week, and that always puts me off.

Edit: I'm wondering if you think HOU are just going to carve up ATL, if so I might take the overs.

Lori

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I don't really see them blowing them out unless they dominate the turnover battle or get some special teams scores. I think that it's more likely they win by 3-7 points.

[paperchamp]

Update (after MNF):

YTD

4-5-1
-2.9u

[Lori]

Thanks.

For the first time this season I might be opposing you on a play here. More research required though as I'm not keen on that.

[paperchamp]

Adding some plays...

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 (-115)
Risking 2.3u to win 2u

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings +3 (-125)
Risking 2.6u to win 2u

[Veecee]

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Adding some plays...

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 (-115)
Risking 2.3u to win 2u

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings +3 (-125)
Risking 2.6u to win 2u

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Yeah he's playing in a dome, but I expect to see Favre and the Pack win by at least a TD. They are playing some really good football right now. GL with your play though.

[paperchamp]

Thanks. The dome thing didn't really play into my analysis for this game. The fact that a lot of people "expect to see Favre and the Pack win by at least a TD" did however.

[Veecee]

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Thanks. The dome thing didn't really play into my analysis for this game. The fact that a lot of people "expect to see Favre and the Pack win by at least a TD" did however.

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Hahahha yeah you're right, the way I've been picking spreads lately (1-for-4 last week FTW), you've probably got this one nailed.

What do you think about these:

DEN @ IND -10.5
BAL -4.5 @ CLE
KC @ SD -12.5

[paperchamp]

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Thanks. The dome thing didn't really play into my analysis for this game. The fact that a lot of people "expect to see Favre and the Pack win by at least a TD" did however.

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Hahahha yeah you're right, the way I've been picking spreads lately (1-for-4 last week FTW), you've probably got this one nailed.

What do you think about these:

DEN @ IND -10.5
BAL -4.5 @ CLE
KC @ SD -12.5

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All those games are sorta of "meh" for me but those are some good lines for the dogs if you can get them. I definitely wouldn't bet any favs at those prices. If I had to bet one I'd take Cleveland +4.5.

[gringo_grinder]

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What do you think about these:

DEN @ IND -10.5
BAL -4.5 @ CLE
KC @ SD -12.5

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Denver will show up after being embarrased last week. They still have the CB team in the league and Indy is hardly blowing out anyone with a decent D. (gg NWO). I like Denver if you can get a spread of 10.5.

Bal/Cle I am a ravens fan and I actually like CLE to cover. Bal is weak on offence still and really only had one offensive TD against AZ and their secondary gave up a pile of yards to a solid passing game. Plus, Jamal returns to Bal and will try to run well.

KC/SD - I don't like this line at all. I am leaning towards SD mainly because KC is pretty useless on offence and SD at home might get 2 TDs. I hate taking divisional games by double digit spreads though.

In all honesty, I like these three spreads the least this week. Much better picks available, imo.