QQ hand folded face up beginning of WSOP FT

[TheNewf]

Yeah this hand was a disaster. Obv he should crai on the flop. If he knew anything about how Yang played from the day before he should have pushed pre. That being said I think Yang actually had it here, he moved in on the flop instantly w/o thought so probably JJ at least.

[LCposter]

I posted this in the WSOP forum, but it's a strategy post, so it really belongs here.

Clearly I'm in the minority, but I don't think lead/fold is that terrible on this hand. I really don't think CRAI has much fold equity here with most of Young's possible holdings, so it's not really an aggressive move, but a move to maximize value when ahead. I can understand not wanting to do that when opponent seemed to be rep AA/KK preflop. I think with slow blinds Childs is hoping to wait for the chance to get his chips in with fold equity along with showdown value.

In any case, here was my analysis of the hand. Someone point out where this is off.

Looking at the hand from Yang's point-of-view, why is it so obvious that Childs is weak? He's leading into the preflop aggressor, and it's not a tiny bet (a 60% pot lead OOP into the PFR doesn't seem weak to me at least). If the bet size seems too small, would 3.5-4M be better? In any case, I think the 3M bet is big enough to be scary (looks pretty pot-committing). I think Yang would put Childs on at least TT+/set/big draw (maybe 88/77/66 lead out like this too, but personally I think Childs is check/folding anything under 99).

Against that range, is Yang really going to put his own tourney life on the line with any two? Even if he pegs Childs as weak/tight, he knows only TT/JJ and maybe QQ can fold. Therefore I think the raise here represents JJ+ (with higher weighting towards AA/KK) or a big draw most of the time and trash a small percentage of time.

In order to analyze the flop lead, we have to think about how Childs would play a monster. If he had AA or a set, is he more likely to get all of Yang's chips in on the flop with a 2/3-pot lead or a CRAI? I would argue the former, espcially since everyone here thinks Yang is agressive enough to raise practically any two. Also, there's no guarantee that Yang cbets and then calls the CRAI getting odds. There is a decent chance that with overcards or a draw he might check behind, or with trash he could bet/fold.

Given that Childs played QQ the same way he could play AA or a set, it can't be that bad. Also, if Childs checks, Yang checks behind, and the turn comes A, K, or club (up to 19 possible scare cards) he's just given Yang the best hand or a golden opportunity to bluff and steal the pot.

Calling the flop lead terrible because we saw Yang raise all-in seems results-oriented to me. I think if Childs CRAIs with QQ and Yang flips over AA then Childs is still getting called a donk on the forum.

Overall, what's the consensus? Is donking a dry flop like this automatically bad? Or is the play bad because the pot was too big a percentage of Childs' stack?

[Pokerpun]

I want to say that in this situation with the money at stake being far in excess of Lee Childs' bankroll, then Utility of Money consideratons come in to play.

It is like an episode of Deal or No Deal ;-)
Given that he is only likely to be in such a position to play for this amount of money once , I think it is really important to consider how important it was for Childs to play safe and move up a couple of more places and make an extra 250 K compared to making the best move in terms of raw expectation.

[SamG]

[ QUOTE ]
I want to say that in this situation with the money at stake being far in excess of Lee Childs' bankroll, then Utility of Money consideratons come in to play.

It is like an episode of Deal or No Deal ;-)
Given that he is only likely to be in such a position to play for this amount of money once, I think it is really important to consider how important it was for Childs to play safe and move up a couple of more places and make an extra 250 K compared to making the best move in terms of raw expectation.

[/ QUOTE ]
1st Prize: 8.25 mil
9th Prize: ~500K

The steep prize structure really forces you to play to win. If utility of money considerations cause you to make decisions this bad at the final table, you really shouldn't be playing in a tournament this large to begin with, IMHO.

[bluesbassman]

[ QUOTE ]
These are his options:

1. Shove preflop, he'll probably get called by AA, KK or AK (but I'm not sure about AK, I sure as hell wouldn't fold AK there), and get JJ- to fold. Result: 80-20 dog to AA or KK, flip with AK, win against other hands.

2. Call preflop and then shove or check-raise a flop without an overcard. You're going broke either way if you're beat, might as well check raise rather than shove to get more money in the pot. Result: if A or K flops, just lose the call; if they don't, get AK to fold (probably), get called and 92-8 dog against AA or KK; no idea what result against JJ, TT or 99, maybe get them to call the C/R and be a huge favorite in a huge pot.

3. Call trying to flop a set if you're not willing to take a chance on going broke in the hand, which seems too weak to even contemplate.

I would not even put what he did, call and then weak lead on raggy flop, as an option on the list because against a halfway decent player you will get put all in every single time -- you are screaming that you have an overpair but are not willing to go all the way with it. Which is why it would be a good way to play a flopped set here, but nothing else.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand your reasoning. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

If #2 is an option, how is that any better than leading for 1/2 the pot on the flop, and calling the all-in? You stated in option #2 we don't mind getting all our chips in on that flop anyway, so why not let Yang put us all-in?

The advantage of leading the flop over checking is that if Yang has AK (or AQ, JJ, etc), it tempts him to shove all-in with the worse hand, or make a mathematically -EV call. By checking, Yang has the option of getting a free card. By open shoving the flop, you give him the chance to fold the worse hand.