200NL - TPGK in reraised pot facing some tough decisions

[ua1176]

weird. i dont have anything on Rexy. must be a time-of-day thing on my end as well.

[Clever Nickname]

[ QUOTE ]

I probably don't make the call on the river online, but would definitely consider it live.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I don't play much live poker, but the play seems significantly worse, so I would be more scared of the villain "value-betting" something like a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], whereas I would expect a decent online player to only be betting the river here with the ace or king high flush, or a bluff.

[PokerDork]

[ QUOTE ]
I was really really close to folding the river but I was getting such good odds to call. And really, if villain was bluffing the flop, this is the perfect river to fire a second barrel on, especially given how weak my hand looks.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think ~2.5:1 is really great odds to be calling here. It is a good card to bluff, but if you believe him to be solid he should know that anyway and react accordingly. If I had to put him on a hand I wouldnt be surprised if he turned an A or K high flush here, minraising for the free card or with Kxd. If you want to continue you should just 3-bet shove the flop. What are you hoping him to do on the turn? Either you have the best hand and you give him a chance to get a free card, you try to spike your 3-5 outer in which case your effective odds aren't that great, or you let him "bluff/semi-bluff" AI on the turn when its probably not a bluff that often.
I would also argue that 3-betting here against a solid player pf will force you into spots like this too often where shoving onlu moves him off only hands worse and he calls with everything that beats you, so I prefer just calling pf, because he's probably not folding much of his steal range getting 2:1 in position.

edited: for clarity

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, my thinking at the time (whether or not it's correct) was that shoving the flop was bad, because I'm never folding out a better hand if I'm behind, and I stop him from bluffing if I'm ahead. Whenever I see a flop minraise like he did it almost always seems to be the nuts or air. I don't think most players have the guts to fire a 2nd barrel in this spot with air after getting called on the flop, since it looks like I could very well be slowplaying a monster myself, so I decided to call the flop and re-evaluate. I'm not sure how solid this line of reasoning is though, given that I was under time pressure when I came up with it.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree about your flop analysis. It's either a better hand than KQ or it's a bluff not intending to keep bluffing on the turn.

[depaolilover]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I probably don't make the call on the river online, but would definitely consider it live.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? I don't play much live poker, but the play seems significantly worse, so I would be more scared of the villain "value-betting" something like a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], whereas I would expect a decent online player to only be betting the river here with the ace or king high flush, or a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this, and thats why I'd also call. The way the hand played out, I too think he has the nuts (Ad or Kd) or air. Looking at the way the hand played out, he definitely isn't value betting something worse than this.

On the flop, he is either valuebetting or bluffing. The hands he is value betting (set, overpair) do not play the rest of the hand liek this... therefore, he was probably bluffing on the flop. This leaves either air or a flushdraw on the flop. If he ended up bluffing and had the lone Ad or Kd on the turn, i think he would've bet AI for sure right then and there and you wouldnt have made it to the river. This means the only realistic hand he beats you with on the river is the nut flush on the turn that he slowplayed.

After the diamond on the river comes this opens up a lot of his range to bluff. I really think you're only beat by Adxd that got frustrated another diamond came and is just trying to get paid off. I call.