Flop check raise with underpair multi-way pot

[DVDA4life]

Preflop 3 better is a competent TAG who has 22/16/1.7 stats with a WSD @ 34%. The original raiser was a TAG and the other two were fairly loose and agressive.
Do I get this heads up with the preflop 3 better when he has unimproved high cards enough for this to be profitable?

Full Tilt 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3, 3.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, Hero calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 4, 8, 4 (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets, Hero raises

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop 3 better is a competent TAG who has 22/16/1.7 stats with a WSD @ 34%. The original raiser was a TAG and the other two were fairly loose and agressive.
Do I get this heads up with the preflop 3 better when he has unimproved high cards enough for this to be profitable?

Full Tilt 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3, 3.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, 1 fold, MP2 raises, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button 3-bets, Hero calls, 1 fold, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: (16 SB) 4, 8, 4 (5 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Button bets, Hero raises

[/ QUOTE ]

no. the pot is huge and many players will call your raise here with an 8, a mid pp, or just overcards.

i would call the flop adn reevaluate on the turn. you might consider going for a turn CR if you feel everyone is weak, as that is the only place where you will have fold equity. usually, however, i just C/F the turn UI.

if you turn a boat then lead out and suck others into the pot obv

[Harv72b]

Fold preflop, unless your reads on the other players in the pot indicate that you're going to win a huge pot if you flop your set. As in, nobody's folding any pair for any price and one or more opponents will keep raising til the turn is capped with an overpair.

If I did call preflop, then I'm check/folding the flop. Keep in mind that not only do you have 3 other players yet to act behind you, but that even if Button does just have overcards he flopped another 3 outs against you (and will probably turn another 3). That combined with the fact that I don't think a check/raise here gets you heads up nearly often enough make this a fold.

[Hyperrrprank]

Fold preflop. Maybe if another 2 or 3 people were in you could profit paying 3 bets to see a flop with a pair of 3s, but as played there's no way you're getting positive EV here.

[KitCloudkicker]

[ QUOTE ]


If I did call preflop, then I'm check/folding the flop. Keep in mind that not only do you have 3 other players yet to act behind you, but that even if Button does just have overcards he flopped another 3 outs against you (and will probably turn another 3).

[/ QUOTE ]

i would usually agree but the ragged nature of this flop makes it rather unlikely that anyone is going to check raise it. thus with our implied odds, if we just have to call 1 sb we have odds to see the turn. it is unlikely that anyone with an 8 will CR, and those that flopped trips usually love to wait until the turn.

[DVDA4life]

alright thanks for the input you guys. In the heat of the moment it felt like it might be profitable since the pot was so huge, but after reviewing the hand it felt spewy.

If everyone did fold except for the preflop 3better who just called and a brick hit the turn and river then we have an easy value bet, right?

[Dagger78]

Fold preflop, this call is a loser about every time.

Fold on the flop. The chance your hand is good AND it will hold up are slim.

[DVDA4life]

Is my preflop call really that bad? If the big blind folds and the original raiser does not cap I am getting 5.4:1 on my call.

If the original raiser does cap and the big blind folds I am still getting 5:1. If the big blind calls my odds slightly improve.

Although I am in early position I have good relative position versus the preflop 3 better and I can donk the flop if I hit my set and possibly trap people for several bets, as they will be forced to call with weak draws which are often drawing dead against me since the pot will be so huge.

I realize my implied odds are not the greatest since I am investing so many bets preflop, but this call does not seem horrible to me. Is anything wrong with my reasoning here?

[Harv72b]

You're not getting 5:1. You're getting 15:2.5. The more bets you have to invest preflop, the more bets you have to make up postflop in order to come out ahead. You also have lousy position relative the 3bettor postflop if your aim will be to trap the field; a check/raise blows them all out of the pot and a lead bet has no guarantee of being raised (or of being called by the other players). And even if you do lead out, get a couple callers, and the button raises, you're stuck with basically the same scenario as if you'd gone for the check/raise.

[DVDA4life]

[ QUOTE ]
You're not getting 5:1. You're getting 15:2.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for responding. How did you arrive at this figure? I double checked and am still not getting 15:2.5.

Assuming the original raiser does not cap the betting, 3 bb (big blinds) will be going in from the other 4 players, plus 1 sb from the big blind, and another .5 bb that I have already invested. That is 13.5 bbs that is already in the pot compared to the 2.5 bbs it takes for me to call. 2.5:13.5 simplifies to 1:5.4, or did I make a mistake somewhere?

Also, I understand that my implied odds are worse since I invested more preflop, but doesn't the size of the pot somewhat nullify this? People will likely call with weakdraws such as pairs/overcards which are almost drawing dead to me, so I still have some implied odds.

I am not arguing that my preflop call was +EV, I just believe that it is much closer than everyone is making it out to be.