Turn 3 bet for freeshowdown w AK

[DVDA4life]

Villain is 38/12/1.6 with a WTS 25% over ~200 hands. My image is TAG and I have been running hot and showing down winners.

My stats on villain showed that he had won 0 out of 2 hands when he had raised the turn. Am I spewing money on this hand?

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>

Given villains turn stats, I figured he could be check raising this turn with a variety of hands including any pair, a flush draw/straight draw, or a pure bluff w/overcards. I wanted to see a showdown, and I figured 3 betting the turn would get me there for the same price and would have the benefit of him folding small pairs given his low WSD. If he caps I assume I am drawing dead. Should I just call down his turn check raise, or is the 3 bet good? BTW I rarely make plays like this.

[yourface]

the 3bet is pretty bad. if you want to see a showdown don't give yourself the opportunity of being played off your hand. also if villain is semibluffing he will almost always follow up on the river, and you have better equity on that bet than on another turn bet.

edit:
wtsd isn't near converged over 200 hands, and I would just fold to the turn c/r unless I had a specific read

[kaby]

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also if villain is semibluffing he will almost always follow up on the river, and you have better equity on that bet than on another turn bet.

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Say what? If he's betting every river and you're calling every time how does this matter?

[yourface]

if he is semibluffing he has 0 equity on every bet that goes in on the river if he misses, but some equity on turn bets

[kaby]

Yeah but we are also calling when he hits, aren't we?

Let's say villain has 40% equity and we have 60%.

On the turn our 3bet gives us .6BB and him .4BB.

When we call the turn and he bets every river, and we call: we win 1bet 60% of the time and lose 1bet 40% of the time, so isn't this exactly the same?

[jstill]

are we folding a gutshot/ flush river? 6 or 8 of spades

at OP, just calldown

[jstill]

[ QUOTE ]
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also if villain is semibluffing he will almost always follow up on the river, and you have better equity on that bet than on another turn bet.

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Say what? If he's betting every river and you're calling every time how does this matter?

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yourface's comment actually applies more correctly to situations where we have a made hand we want to put in another bet for value against the range of hands he cr's on the turn ( primarily when there are a lot of worse made hands as well as semi-bluffs).

then waiting gets us the most vs semi bluffs since we ll only raise non scare rivers and they cant donk or cr the river after we 3bet the turn when they hit (assuming we are incapable of folding to a cr when the flush comes in). also we get better equity on the 2 bets on the river against worse made hands than 1 more on the turn (our 3bet where they ll have partial equity) and 1 on the river ideally with none.

whether this line will actually be the most ev vs calling down or 3betting the turn depends upon a couple of instance specific factors, how likely they are to bet call the river with worse hands, their range and our equity against it, how often they are semi bluffing and bet the river UI ect ect.

[yourface]

yah that sounds right. my bad.

not getting played off our hand is v important though, and we can get away from certain river cards so we don't always pay him off when he hits.