tough spot with AA - 10£/20£

[Chaoslord]

sorry no converter working for crypto.


game is 10£/20£ (about 20/40$) 6-max

UTG has about 6k on the table, hes not a regular and i dont know how he got his stack, i have him at 10/5 over 30 hands

shortstack is loose and a donk.

i (3200 stack) play agressive (about 25/20) but utg doesnt know that.

action:
UTG limps i make it 80£ with AhAd shortstack calls, UTG calls.
flop Kh 4h Ts
UTG checks i bet 180 shorstack pushes 369 total UTG coldcalls i call 189 more.

turn 6h
UTG bets 1420 (about potsize i have 3k left)


My Questions:
What about the flop play, who likes a reraise or even a push?
Turn is an easy fold despite me having the A of hearts, right? who disagrees?

Results dont matter, but i will post them probably later, Thanks!

[TheGrifter]

I think you should raise a bit more pre w/ a limper.

On the flop, I like a 3-bet to 1300 or so better than a call. He may give up on a FD since you have the Ah.

[King Fish]

I don't like the cold call on the flop, and prefer a pot reraise or push (I am not folding flop if he repops a reraise).

His turn bet seems like AK to me. I don't see the value in him betting the pot with the flush in a dry side, unless he is playing with scared money (which may be a possibility). Nor do I think he is going to pot it with a flopped set in case you hit the flush.

With the AH as backup, I think I push here.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the cold call on the flop, and prefer a pot reraise or push (I am not folding flop if he repops a reraise).

His turn bet seems like AK to me. I don't see the value in him betting the pot with the flush in a dry side, unless he is playing with scared money (which may be a possibility). Nor do I think he is going to pot it with a flopped set in case you hit the flush.

With the AH as backup, I think I push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only problem is that AK is the only hand you are beating if you put any stock in his stats (10/5). Admittedly, I am not too sure how important those stats are since they are only over the course of 30 hands, but any legit 10/5 has at least AK here and more likely a set. Problem is, I didn't think 10/5 type people even existed at 6-max so maybe he has just gotten gotten really [censored] cards over this short span.

I lean towards folding, but I don't agree with OP that it is an easy fold. If he were a legit 10/5 we would know he is not only very tight, but a bad player (10/5 in 6-max seems a little ridiculous). This would basically mean he has a set, as his horrible check-cold call slow play makes more sense coming from a tight but bad player.

But I just don't think that we can be sure that we found one of the only 10-5 players in the 6-max universe due to 30 hands of data. The reason I say I lean towards folding is because I think this stats show he is most likely tight (though not 10-5 tight). So basically, AK is the only hand you can hope to be ahead of here.

I would fold turn, though I could understand a push given you have the redraw.

I think your overcall on the flop is fine, as his check-cold call is pretty scary, a fact that many UTG limping weak-tight slow players don't seem to understand.

[Chaoslord]

good post post-oak.

that was basically my reasoning too, of course 30 hands is nothing but he SEEMS to be a bit on the tight/passive side, no other reads on him - also hes up 2 buyins so he probably isnt very bad.
i was thinking that if i reraise flop he gives me action only when im beat and i didnt feel like stacking off 150bb in a dry sidepot.

on the turn well its tough, i was at the time convinced he had a small flush or set and that i didnt have enough equity to call, because surly a bluff is pretty unlikely in a dry side pot - but now as im thinking about it im not so sure anymore (only a few secs for decicion making at crypto)

[King Fish]

[ QUOTE ]
because surly a bluff is pretty unlikely in a dry side pot - but now as im thinking about it im not so sure anymore (only a few secs for decicion making at crypto)

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh, i don't think he is bluffing. I think he has a hand. I just have my doubts about whether it beats AA. I disregarded the 10/5 because of sample size.

I'm really just having a hard time making his 1400 bet add up. It smells like AK panic to me. I just can't see him flat calling the flop with a set. But I also can't see him potting the board with a flush on the turn.

I think your overcall threw him for a bit of a loop.

If he is a true 10/5 player, he may be taking a shot or playing scared, and afraid his 9h TH (or similar hand)can get run down by a higher river flush. That is the only way I can see him potting there with a flush, and I think it may be stretching a bit.

I think AdAc is an easy fold. But factoring in the fact that there is a decent chance you are ahead, plus a draw to the nuts (and possibly one or 2 live aces), I still think it is a marginal push.

Now, if you had a few hundred more hands sample size and it still says 10/5, I fold.

But I'm a donk.

[creedofhubris]

[ QUOTE ]
also hes up 2 buyins so he probably isnt very bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

I tend to assume that when a non-regular is up multiple buyins he's terrible.

Same reason why the day 1 chipleader at the WSOP main event never gets very far.