30/60 turn spot

[cgrohman]

But by checking the turn we lose value vs. b) and d) and when he donks the river do we call with A high? The 3 bet is obviously horrible but I bet the turn all day long w the nut draw 2 overs and gs.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
But by checking the turn we lose value vs. b) and d) and when he donks the river do we call with A high? The 3 bet is obviously horrible but I bet the turn all day long w the nut draw 2 overs and gs.

[/ QUOTE ]

we don't lose value if he wouldn't have called the turn bet.

[Nate.]

All--

I think that it's completely bonkers not to bet this turn. People call this flop with all sorts of stuff, including many no-pair hands, all of which you want to bet against on this turn. Even bad one-pair hands fold sometimes. And there's the obvious poker-101 reason that you only lose a fraction of a bet when you're called by a better hand. Even getting checkraised isn't terrible.

Quick visualization thing: you don't know any hands, and you see a defense situation where the big blind check-calls a 965 twotone flop and then check-folds an offsuit seven turn. Are you very surprised to see the fold? If not, we should definitely definitely bet the turn.

In short, it takes a heck of a read not to bet this turn. I agree that three-betting is pretty bad, but I can think of a few guys who manage to have checkraising ranges here that consist substantially of hands that fold to a third bet. (Seriously.)

Anyway, I belive that checking behind here under anything near standard conditions is a big mistake.

--Nate

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]


Quick visualization thing: you don't know any hands, and you see a defense situation where the big blind check-calls a 965 twotone flop and then check-folds an offsuit seven turn. Are you very surprised to see the fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

I find it hard to believe that anything that can check/call this flop will now fold the turn when that card comes. Are we really supposed to have an 8 here?

[Nate.]

PokerBob--

Anyone who won't fold any pair here will have all sorts of no-pair hands here. Why does he need to put us on an 8 to fold 33 or K5 or 62s, anyway? After all, he's either a terrible hand-range analyst, or he knows that it's terrible to have a narrow betting range in Hero's spot.

--Nate

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerBob--

Anyone who won't fold any pair here will have all sorts of no-pair hands here. Why does he need to put us on an 8 to fold 33 or K5 or 62s, anyway? After all, he's either a terrible hand-range analyst, or he knows that it's terrible to have a narrow betting range in Hero's spot.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

in my experience, guys who flop pairs don't fold them, especially on paintless boards. the point is, much more often than not, when he calls the flop and then that card comes, he's got something that beats us and he ain't folding it to a turn bet. in this super tiny pot in a situation where we (a) are likely beat (b) have a boatload of outs and (c) have to call a turn c/r, i think betting sucks.

[Nate.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
PokerBob--

Anyone who won't fold any pair here will have all sorts of no-pair hands here. Why does he need to put us on an 8 to fold 33 or K5 or 62s, anyway? After all, he's either a terrible hand-range analyst, or he knows that it's terrible to have a narrow betting range in Hero's spot.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

in my experience, guys who flop pairs don't fold them.

[/ QUOTE ]

PokerBob--

(A) I think that statement is nowhere near true.

(B) As I've said a few times, he doesn't need to fold a pair for the bet to be correct.

--Nate

EDIT: Looks like you edited the post. You seem not to be paying attention. Not only do almost all opponents fold some pairs here, what you wrote is not a sufficient condition for a bet to be incorrect even if you were right. If you think through what this* would imply about his flop and preflop calling ranges, you end up with a pretty incoherent picture of how Villain plays poker.

*this here referring to a situation where an opponent wouldn't fold a pair and yet wouldn't have many unpaired hands in the first place

EDIT 2: Gah, PokerBob edited the post I'm responded to again. That's twice just for this post, after several more posts had occurred in the thread. Trust me, gentle reader. Anyway, I've repeated my position enough now. What PB is saying just doesn't outweigh the obvious benefits of betting.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
But by checking the turn we lose value vs. b) and d) and when he donks the river do we call with A high? The 3 bet is obviously horrible but I bet the turn all day long w the nut draw 2 overs and gs.

[/ QUOTE ]

which bet has more value for us: the bet that we place and gets called on the turn, or the bet that we put in on the river when we call after the turn checks through?

[private joker]

I just saw this thread. I bet the turn, call the c/r, and river a flush.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
I just saw this thread. I bet the turn, call the c/r, and river a flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is just awful. if you're gonna river a flush, 3bet the goddamn turn.