3-1 pot odds but are my odds of winning 4-1?

[theordinaryboy]

stars $50 $25000 guaranteed

hero 12k
sb 8k
utg 9k

hero is bb with Qs Qc blinds 200/400/25

utg calls 400, 6 folds, sb raises to 1200, hero raises 4000, utg goes all-in for 9000, sb folds, hero?

5000 to call into 14425.

I suppose the question is how often is utg doing this with JJ or AK???

[RonFezBuddy]

probably often enough that you are getting odds to call. Remember, even if he has AA or KK you are 20%. Add in JJ and KA and it seems like a no brainer.

[DumbHick]

Meh, it's a pretty crappy spot but routinely folding QQ when being offered 3:1 odds is a huge mistake against any reasonable range.

Push preflop next time.

[JammyDodga]

[ QUOTE ]

Push preflop next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why, what does that achieve? Better hands + AK are calling anyway, and you might fold out worse hands.

[levAA]

if you have no read on UTG i would call.
i think people are doing the limp/reraise move much more often with high PP than with AK, but you see this with any kind of PP down to TT or even lower.
and as you said you are getting 1:3 so folding is too weak here.
the preflop raise was good imo, as you would love see utg coming along with JJ and lower.

[DumbHick]

[ QUOTE ]
Why, what does that achieve? Better hands + AK are calling anyway, and you might fold out worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

If a player is willing to call off %50 of his stack, he'll most definitely be willing to play for his entire stack anyways. Also, moving in looks weaker to most of the players out there, and you may be looked up by 88-JJ, whereas raising to 4k would induce folds.

[wizard]

If you are down to 3 handed, utg could be "TRAPPING" with a huge range of hands and even when he folds all the weaker of that range he may still think he is ahead of your range for the 4000 bet.
I suspect from the stack sizes that you are not playing 3 handed though. Even so, you should call. You just can't be quite as happy about it.

[GeniusOrCrazy]

Judging by the size of the pot (if my maths is right: 9000+1200+4000+9*25=14425) they are playing 9-handed.

I'd almost always call this.

i did some rough math that may help. if you assumed that 70% of the time UTG has KK+ and the remaining 30% you are ahead, which i think is a conservative estimate of how often you are ahead here then:

if you are ahead:

(0.3*0.8*14425)-(0.3*0.2*5000)=3162

if you are behind:

(0.7*0.2*14425)-(0.7*0.8*5000)=-780.5

so according to my math on average you win 2381.5 here. sounds like an easy call providing my maths is correct (please feel free to correct it if its not).

and

[Dunkman]

I couldn't fold here, but I agree the limp/4bet AI, with 0 perceived FE, is a scary [censored] line. Again, I'd call here without thinking about it, but I doubt this is anything besides KK+ very often. I bet it's something stupid often enough to make the call EV neutral, but I don't think you're profiting much from calling here.

[GeniusOrCrazy]

i reckon if its not KK or AA more then ~9.6% of the time it will be +ve.