Pwnage or just bad luck?

[bcubed72]

I'm playing $1/2 NL in AC. Table's been moderately loose, but, in particular, MUCH larger than standard PF bets are being called.

I'm in the CO with about $200. I'm dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Two limpers to me. I raise to $15. The BB calls, as does the earliest limper.

Flop (pot $48): J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Checked to me. I don't want to seem too happy, but I also don't want to miss a bet here, so I put out $35. BB calls.

Turn (pot $118): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Checked to me again. I put out $75, just under 1/2 my stack. BB thinks for a while, asks my remaining stack, which I tell him. Then I get "(sigh) I guess I gotta call." Even though he's been somewhat talkative, this sets my BS detector off. I figue I'm either skunked by something like 88, or, more likely, I'm up against KJ. The way this table's been playing, even J8 or J7 is possible.

River (pot $268): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB puts me all-in. Now I'm pretty sure I'm in trouble, since I read him for a strong hand on the turn, which he confirmed for me on the river. He's got at least trip jacks here--I don't see this as a bluff. I call, though, because I figure pot odds vs. the chance he's betting a weaker trip, compel it. He turns over T9o.

1. I feel I played ok through the turn. Was the river a weak call or am I forced to pay him off? Was the size of the flop bet ok? Obv he's getting short odds against a paired board, but if he thinks he'll get a third caller, plus the obvious likelihood that I didn't fill up, it's a marginal call given implied odds. How SHOULD I size this bet?

[Mike Gallo]

You should post this in a strategy forum.

[kylephilly]

He sucked out, beware of "the speech"...

"I guess I gotta call"
"I'll JUST call"

These are all massive tells, weak is strong.. he wouldn't say that and then shove on the river with nothing.

However, you have so much of your money in there I would call too and rebuy. Similar stuff like this happens all the time the key is to take advantage of this fool when he doesn't pull off a 4 outer.

[GiantBuddha]

Just looking at the board and the title of the thread my first thought was "straight". I think the key here is whether or not your opponent knows what constitutes a big hand here. If he's the type who hits trips and thinks it's the nuts, then you have to call. His acting makes me think that he doesn't give you trips here, so I can't see folding the river getting like 4.5 to 1.

It might be too weak, but I consider checking the turn if I felt my opponent was on a draw. Playing live I find the draws are more obvious than online. People just have this different feel about them when they're drawing. Also the way he checks the turn could be a clue. The problem here is that you picked up a solid tell, but by that point you'd already put most of your money in the pot.

[blunty31]

In AC 1/2 9 times out of 10 your hand is the nuts, I think Id go broke with it every time.

[spino1i]

I think this is an easy fold due to his blatent hollywooding etc. However, this the sort of hand where tells and being there really help you make a decision. I dont think a J with a weaker kicker pushes often on that river either.