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#12
11-05-2007, 05:00 PM
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Re: live 6/12, 87s from BB
[ QUOTE ]
I agree, in that case you're in pretty rough shape. But how often are you going to get capped? How often are you even going to get 3-bet? I don't know if we really have a good way of deciding that. [/ QUOTE ] You're exactly right here, in that we don't really have a good way of telling when this is going to get 3-bet and capped. Drawing the conclusion that this should lean us towards calling is completely backwards though. The possibility of getting raised again (and closely linked to that the possibility we're drawing very thin) pushes us towards a fold. It doesn't much matter if we sometimes get lucky and no one raises behind us, since we stand to make this play over and over again in a career our expectation is significantly lowered even if there's only a small chance of paying 4 bets. 
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#13
11-05-2007, 05:01 PM
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Re: live 6/12, 87s from BB
[ QUOTE ]
I think this is right, but it's the exception to the rule. I'm just allergic to the idea of calling two cold with middle pair/no kicker OOP in general. [/ QUOTE ] Edit that to add "calling two cold with middle pair/no kicker OOP and not closing the action"
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#14
11-05-2007, 05:01 PM
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Re: live 6/12, 87s from BB
Outs: 8s seem good (2), BDFD is worth 1.5 (3.5), why are 7s no good? Are we worried about people with 96 and 64 for gutshots? If so we discount the 7s a little to say 2 (5.5) plus a little (not much for our own ragged BDSD (0.5).
Probably looking at 6 outs. Anyone not think this is realistic? That said it probably feels marginal so I don't mind folding this. If playing I'm calling rather than raising, though with position I'd raise.
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#15
11-05-2007, 05:02 PM
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Re: live 6/12, 87s from BB
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I think this is right, but it's the exception to the rule. I'm just allergic to the idea of calling two cold with middle pair/no kicker OOP in general. [/ QUOTE ] Edit that to add "calling two cold with middle pair/no kicker OOP and not closing the action" [/ QUOTE ] good point. teach me to not suck at posting.
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#16
11-05-2007, 05:07 PM
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Re: live 6/12, 87s from BB
Meh, OK. So this is a situation where in my live game I take a second and see if I can get a read on what MP1 is going to do. Often times he'll have already cut off 2 bets from his stack and practically be shoving them into the pot.
Readless, I'm almost always calling here. If MP1 is much more likely to 3-bet than your standard 6/12 player, then I can fold. But if he's a standard "i never 3 bet" kind of guy I like the call still.
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#17
11-05-2007, 05:13 PM
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Re: live 6/12, 87s from BB
Um... this is a fold. Is the world insane? You don't have 6 outs here when its bet and raised in a passive live game. Plus, as others have said, you aren't closing the action and if it get threebet you definantly don't have 6 outs.
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#18
11-05-2007, 05:28 PM
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Re: live 6/12, 87s from BB
[ QUOTE ]
Um... this is a fold. Is the world insane? You don't have 6 outs here when its bet and raised in a passive live game. Plus, as others have said, you aren't closing the action and if it get threebet you definantly don't have 6 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Christ. This is so frusturating. This is where I started and now I'm back there again. It's like I'm incapable of thinking for myself. I'm terrified of looking stupid. This puts me on life tilt.
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#19
11-05-2007, 05:36 PM
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Re: live 6/12, 87s from BB
Frond - off topic - I am quite fond of Mc single malt 12-18 years. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#20
11-05-2007, 05:49 PM
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Re: live 6/12, 87s from BB
[ QUOTE ]
Um... this is a fold. Is the world insane? You don't have 6 outs here when its bet and raised in a passive live game. Plus, as others have said, you aren't closing the action and if it get threebet you definantly don't have 6 outs. [/ QUOTE ] Just a question...where was it said that this game was passive?
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