Two blindsteal/defense hands: what would you do?

[Hielko]

Hand 1:
Button is 26.8/14.4/1.7 over 450 hands

Hero raises A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] from the CO, Button 3-bets.
Flop: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero??

Hand 2:
SB is 17.5/9.8/3.0 over 785 hands

SB raises, Hero calls from BB with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets, Hero?

What range would you give the villain in these two hands, and how would you play this postflop?

[James.]

not loving it, but i would peel hand 1. we may have as many as 6 outs, and even the best hand somewhat often. i would actually consider check/calling down some portion of the time as well.

hand 2 i'm raising the flop. we have position, a pair, and a BD flush draw in a blind vs. blind battle.

[iceit]

I agree with peeling one off for hand #1 but I don't exactly agree with raising the flop for hand #2. I know it might sound like a weak play but I don't think that longterm it might be very profitable thing to do especially in small stakes where a lot of players will call you down with small PP like 4's.I think that the main thing here is that you have to ask yourself "has this guy ever done this before and if so, with what hand."

[HoneyBadger]

Hand 1 I'd just fold. (most likely holding a 3 outer, and you're OOP... so even if you hit you won't know what to do. Plus you pay the most when it's the wrong 3 outer and win the least when it's the right one)

Hand 2 I'd raise for sure. (you have a reasonable hand, which may be currently best; the board is scary, he might fold outright; you have a backdoor draw, and might want a free turn card. You probably need to fire again on the turn though, so I'm not sure how much use that is. A different line would be to call and raise any turn, but this can be expensive in a small pot, and might not even be more effective than a flop raise and turn bet)

[Harv72b]

Hand 1: check/fold flop. It's just not worth chasing down an ace and then hoping it's good here.

Hand 2: Raise flop, fold to any further aggression from this opponent (if he 3bets the flop you have to call there, but can then fold to his turn followup if it doesn't improve you).

Ordinarily I'm taking any pair to the river (at least) in a blind vs. blind hand, but this guy doesn't seem like the type that's opening with QJ here (and if he did, he's not playing back at you with it after that flop). I think he's got you beat more often than not after that flop, and the only reason I advocate raising is that I think you can get him to release a small/mid pocket pair or possibly a K. An alternate line would be to call the flop with the intention of raising any turn card which improves your hand, or folding otherwise.

[Hielko]

Well, I have done some pokerstove work before posting these hands: and I think James is right: you need to peel hand 1 and raise hand 2 (When I played these hands I folded hand 1 and raised hand 2).

Hand 1: If you give villain a 3-bet range of: 66+,A8s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo you have 22,2% equity and you will get 7:1 odds on the flop, he will bet 100% of his range so it will be right to peel. If you think he is a tighter 3-better you could even have more equity since his range would could have less A-high hands in it that have you dominated. You have 24,2% equity against: 66+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo. I don't think it is right though to call the turn and or river UI. If the turn comes a very safe 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you will have 20% equity against his range and you will get 4:1 pot odds on the turn bet. He will probably check some percentage of his worst hands behind on the turn, making your turn call -ev and even if he bets 100% it's still breakeven.

Hand 2: If you assume villain raises top 33% of his hands or something like that from the SB, you will have 30% equity on the flop: so folding can't be right. Raising will fold out a huge number of 6-outers (incorrect folds), so raising is probably the best play. When 3-bet, call because of pot odds and fold turn UI.

[Oink]

About hand 2

My standard play in this spot would be to call flop and call turn (bet if checked to) and make a decision on the river (mostly folding)

With a read on villain raising the flop is a mistake beacuse:

- If villain is ahead raising the flop is an obvious mistake from a FTOP point of view

- If villain is behind two things can happen. If he is bad (and if we know it) enough to fire again on the turn with a 6 outer it is worth more to have him make this bluff than to fold the 6 outer in the 5SB pot on the flop. If villain is more tight (good) he will not bet the turn again without having a hand. This way Hero can play the turn perfectly by folding UI or picking up the pot when checked to.

Without a read its difficult to know what villain will do on the turn if behind and obviously difficult to make the correct decision. However I like calling again cuz Hero has a few outs and cuz villain might very well check the river.