Drawing while heads up and all-in in 2-7 TD

[Hexadecimal]

Although I don't usually play the $11 2-7 TD on PokerStars, opting to work on my game in the $1.10 SnGs, this is a situation I find myself in often in 2-7 TD.

Triple Draw 2-7 Lowball Limit ($100/$200) (converter)

Hero ($2010), Seat 1
BB ($850), Seat 2
UTG ($450), Seat 3
CO ($2030), Seat 5
Button ($4110), Seat 6

Button at Seat 6.
Hero posts $50. BB posts $100.

Hand: [9h 5c 3d 7c Kd]

Round 1: (1.50 SB)

<font color="red">UTG raises. </font><font color="#666666">CO folds. </font><font color="#666666">Button folds. </font><font color="red">Hero raises. </font><font color="#666666">BB folds. </font><font color="red">UTG raises. </font><font color="green">Hero calls. </font>
Hero discards 9h Kd. UTG takes 1.

Hand: [5c 3d 7c 9d 4h]

Round 2: (9.00 SB)

<font color="red">Hero bets. </font><font color="green">UTG calls (all-in). </font>

From here on out, UTG is getting free shots to outdraw me, which begs the question: Just how strong does my hand have to be to go pat with it? In the example above, the Hero has 97, and breaking the 9 to go for a 7 is risky as a 6 will straighten him out.

So, do you pat here, and make your opponent beat your hand in two draws, or draw X number of cards here thinking your hand probably won't stand up? How does this change if the you were the player all-in?

Edit: It should have occurred to me, but it's late and I'm tired. That another important factor is the all-in player has position on me. He's all-in, so betting is taken out of the equation. However, I won't know how many he's drawing until I've made my draw. (I don't know if this makes sense, but it occurred to me that snowing by UTG is possible in this scenario, perhaps to make the Hero break a better, but vulnerable pat hand. Not sure if it will be relevant to this example, but I thought I'd float the idea out there from my stream of consciousness.) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[2461Badugi]

You have to pat here, but you really should be folding predraw.

In general if it's a card-ahead situation you can just act as if there'd been a bet and a call. When both players are pat it gets tricky. Of course you have to stay pat if you don't have a real draw, as in this hand.

[Hexadecimal]

Good reply. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

About the pre-draw fold, I kinda figured after looking at this hand history before I posted, but I was interested in the general implications to one's drawing strategy of an all-in with 2 or more draws left to go. This was the hand that sort of sparked my inquiry, so I decided to post it.

Thanks, 2461Badugi. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[MarkGritter]

This is why you should try to go all-in with position. Also, try harder not to draw the 9. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Playing OOP is tricky. In this hand you obviously have to stand pat. Even if you had a wheel draw, standing pat with the 9 is usually correct, because you are a dog to make a better hand and he is more likely to be drawing than to be pat as well.

You can make a hail-Mary draw on the last round if he pats behind you, as long as you don't do it often enough to encourage him to stand pat with a worse hand and make you blow your advantage.

You have to be certain his hand range is significantly better than what you hold in order for breaking to be correct. On the last draw, you are often a 5:1 dog or worse if you draw. Being 100% ahead 20% of the time and 0% to win 80% of the time gets you the same odds.