Tournament hand

[1MoreFish4U]

A257 is not impossible. Since you are involved to this point, I would raise.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
A257 is not impossible. Since you are involved to this point, I would raise.

[/ QUOTE ]1MoreFish4U - Why?

If Hero raises, knocking out BB, and wins half the pot here, he ends up with about 32000 in chips. If Hero simply calls, not knocking out BB, and wins half the pot here, he ends up with about 37000 in chips.

I'll grant that Hero does increase his chances of winning if he knocks out BB and if BB has a hand that would otherwise have ended with BB winning the high, say a bad low with a baby flush draw. But he also risks ruin, and actually wins less if his raise knocks out BB, and if either his trip jacks stand up (as I think they will) or if he makes the club flush.

You're right that CO could have A257, but in that case Hero gains nothing at all by raising! (CO is already all-in). It would be a nullo bet.

Buzz

[1MoreFish4U]

I would not be able to fold the hand at this point.

I would prefer to get the BB out of the hand, rather than let the BB hang around and catch something that beats me.

If it were limit, I would likely call more often than raise.

There are the occasions where we are way off on what CO is betting - perhaps a low set or a flush draw is possible, although unlikely.

In that case we will get a surprise scoop if it gets down to the two of us.

I do not play a lot of PL, and am only offering my thoughts on how I might approach the hand, and not suggesting it is the optimum play - that's for the experts.

I do not consider myself an excellent tourney player, so in general I prefer to play in a way that takes some of the decision making out of the hand for me.

[Burdzthewurd]

Although you can survive longer in PLO8 tournaments with short stacks, this is an opportunity to go for a big lead, so I suggest you take it.

I've had moderate success at these low buy-in PLO8 tournaments, and a good deal of the time CO has A2 with maybe a pair. BB I'd probably go with a good flush draw and a decent low (if they are in fact non-r-tarded players).

You say the BB is tight/passive. Are they really going to overcall with a flush draw and a non-nut low here if you just call? That's why I reshove here and hope to isolate a split pot with CO. Not only do you want to avoid a river heart peeling off, you surely don't want to see straight cards like 5/7/9/T rolling off either in case BB has some sort of gutter either.

You can save those 9924 chips, but if the payouts are flat, I'd just rather gun for the FT where the payscale goes better than leaving myself short and struggling to get all-in preflop or drawing on the flop. If CO has nut-nut, then gg. But now is the time to go for the throat postflop instead of trying to flip your way to first.

[bbartlog]

Further thoughts and results:
I actually just called here. I do think folding is too weak; the odds of someone having 57xx exactly are small (and even then I have redraws). Raising has the advantage that it may (if BB folds her draw) reduce my risk of losing, but it will also increase the risk of ruin if she calls. The other advantage of raising (vs calling) is that while *I* have some chance of making an expensive mistake on the river, BB probably has none if I just call (or at least none that will put chips in my stack, which is all I care about). If her high draw doesn't make it and I bet her out of the main pot, I still get just half; if she calls, her (presumed) marginal low will still allow her to get half the sidepot from me. I, on the other hand, can easily make a mistake for 10K chips (or more if we include an incorrect fold). Not *too* likely against this particular opponent, but even a 10% chance of error on the river changes our EV picture significantly.
Bottom line: I played this based on my habits playing top set, HU, against one opponent in a cash game. But in hindsight I think I should have raised the turn.

Results:
Hero calls, BB calls (pot is now 55,000).
River: [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
Yeah! I made my flush!
BB bets 10800 (hey, I guess she made her straight, too!), Hero calls 9924 and is all-in.

CO shows [Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] for the second nut low and a straight Three to Seven.
Like Omaha8s, I expected the nut low, but have to give the guy credit for his read of the situation - he seems to have realized that no one else had the nut low, and bet his second nut low accordingly.

BB shows [6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] for a weak low and the straight flush.

Hero is disappointed! [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

So obviously I second-guessed my play after getting bounced out here. And I realized that if all chips were equally valued and I could always play the river correctly, having BB in the hand is slightly positive. I gave her credit for seven high outs (heart flush) and she actually had a different set of seven outs, so my expectation if she folds is half of 44700 discounted for CO's freeroll. A little under 21000. If she calls, my EV would be about 21500 if she actually had the flush draw; 23000 or so in the actual event, since she and CO are sharing three of their freeroll outs. But of course in reality this slight advantage in chip expectation is outweighed by the error equity (if you want to call it that) that BB has on the river.

[I dunno]

Buzz

Well, he is getting 3-1, because its still possible that he could scoop this. Obviously not very likely, but it could still happen.

But it really doesnt matter, look at like he's currently getting 1.2 - 1. If his opponent has the straight, Hero still wins high around 38% of the time. If the villain has:

<ul type="square"> A low plus heart draw, hero wins 3/4 of the time

A low plus an open ended straight draw, Hero wins 85% of the time

A low plus an open ender and a flush draw, hero wins 72% of the time[/list]
Even if the villain had a straight half the time, he's still getting the right price to call, which is what you already said, I just decided to actually figure out the numbers for once and show why he is getting the right price. That, and given that the other villain is passive, and that Hero has position, all equate to a call in my book.

The reason that I look at like I'm getting 3-1 when I have a high only hand is because when I first started taking PLO8 more serious, I ran a lot of situations through twodimes and more or less memorized the equities. It was a lot easier than memorizing odds of scooping, and hi or low wins.

Also, for the people saying you should shove. The pots way too big by now for a raise to have enough fold equity.

[Buzz]

Bart - A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img],9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img],7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img],6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. What a piece of junk!

But O.K. BB flops a straight draw (with the (9-7) and decides to go with it. There are some other remote possibilities as well, like quad sixes and a straight flush. Looks like 1/990 for the quad sixes and 3/990 for the straight flush. That’s less than half of a percent for a miracle hand. 106/100000 and 315/100000 as simulated, for quads and a straight flush, respectively, for BB’s hand. (So the calculation and simulation jibe reasonably well).

Otherwise in the 100,000 turn/river simulation, BB’s hand makes
2,715 back door full houses (2.7%)
4,212 back door flushes (4.2%)
31,194 straights (31.2%)
5,918 trips (5.9%)
40,429 two pairs (40.4%)
15,111 one pair (15.1%)

At any rate, rightly or wrongly, BB continues after the flop and then the turn is the 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. And BB calls the 3rd round bet expecting to make the nuts for half the pot with any five except the 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and expecting to make a non-nut straight with any ten. Make it at best about 37 to 7 against making the winning hand, or more than 5 to 1 against (and that for half the pot).

BB would be getting about 4 to 1 pot odds, 5 to 1 optimistically implied, for the whole pot, but only in the neighborhood of 2 to 1 or so (at best) for half the pot.

Yikes! You don’t need to raise for BB to have horrible odds! BB already has horrible odds!

The thing is, the river could just as well have been
2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], or K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. It’s five to one if a club comes on the river, it will be something other than the 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. And then BB has the tough decision on the river.

But that’s the way poker is. Sometimes people defy the odds and win anyhow. And that happens sometimes with slot machines too. Once in a while someone pulls that handle and hits a big jackpot. The casinos get rich anyhow, although once in a while, even when playing with the odds on their side, they take a hit and pay off a big jackpot. And that’s how it is with poker too. You play with the odds on your side and your opponent doesn’t, and once in a while your opponent beats the odds, as BB did here.

If you knew what cards BB held, just calling would be the correct play. If you were clairvoyant and could see what the flop, turn, and river would be and also could see BB’s hand, then you should never have played in the first place.

Tough break, but that’s poker. You don’t always win when you make the correct play.

Buzz

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, he is getting 3-1, because its still possible that he could scoop this.

[/ QUOTE ]I dunno - Agreed. He is getting 3-1 if he scoops. And you are correct that it is reasonably possible he will scoop.

Let's say roughly 24% of the time Hero is getting 3-1 (because from Hero's point of view, low is about 759/990 or 76% likely).

But at any rate, I should have included the equity from that 24% scoop possibility. I can see a way to do that. (However, it's moot, because it would not change my conclusion).

Buzz

[bbartlog]

You don’t need to raise for BB to have horrible odds!

Yah, it says something when someone's draw is so bad that you *want* them to call in this situation. To be fair to BB, from her perspective her clubs were fairly likely to be good, though even this really doesn't give her proper odds to call.

[I dunno]

BBartlog, do you still think raising is the right play?