Thin draws and large pot odds

bbartlog · #1 05-08-2007, 02:54 PM

I have a good feel for odds in pot limit, but when I step into a loose limit game I often feel lost once the pot gets big. What's the right line of play here preflop and flop? Pot is laying me large odds, but all I have is a handful of dirty outs... and a couple of non-nut backdoors on the flop... should I be folding? Table is fairly passive preflop, so odds of a limp-reraise should be considered small.

PokerStars 2/4 Omaha/8 (10 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB raises, Hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (14 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)
SB bets, Hero calls, UTG raises, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP2 calls, CO folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks.

Fiasco · #2 05-08-2007, 04:04 PM

im inclined to fold pre, and to fold the flop as well. Thats the kind of weak-tight advise I normally dont give, but Ive been falling into this trap recently of getting overwhelmed by my pot odds in LO8 (which are never really as good as they look) and getting dragged along for more bets than its worth.

Im sure buzz can give you an analysis of the chances that someone has TJ, and that someone else has higher backdoor hearts or spades. Im not going to go that far, but I will say that in addition to the fact that you have no draws to the nuts, non of your non-nut draws are all that great either (your flush draws are backdoor, and your straight draw will put a one card straight out).

Its hard to fold in these loose passive games, but you can bleed a lot if you dont stick to the ABC. Wait till you get something nice that you can jam, dont chase weak draws.

bbartlog · #3 05-08-2007, 04:16 PM

Thanks for the comments... own take in hindsight is that the preflop call is OK, since I'm getting 14:1 and not likely to have to pay more (I've seen maybe one limp-reraise in an hour at this table). But the flop call is kind of spewy, with five people still to act it's very likely I'm not going to get away paying just one SB (and indeed I don't).

Colonel Ingus · #4 05-08-2007, 06:00 PM

I fold this preflop despite the odds because I don't think this hand will scoop many pots, and I'm probably in the worst position, just after the preflop raiser, giving reverse implied odds. If I did call, I would be inclined to fold flop, and I don't think it's weak-tight at all.

davebreal · #5 05-08-2007, 07:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
own take in hindsight is that the preflop call is OK, since I'm getting 14:1 and not likely to have to pay more

[/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

total preflop spew.

worthless hand.

Fiasco · #6 05-08-2007, 08:33 PM

I think youre actually getting 13:1, and something you should consider is whether you will flop trips or a 9T or something else really worthwhile anywhere near 1 in 14 times.

EffenDolts · #7 05-08-2007, 11:20 PM

You have great odds for a preflop call if you are all-in. In fact, you have just slightly less equity than typically calling hands in a loose game. The problem is that the hand is almost impossible to play postflop. If you get a flop that you like, you will often only get action from better hands, and you will often fold the best hand post-flop. These factors don't show up in equity calculations.

In a limit tournament, a lot of players don't realize how strong this hand is when you are short-stacked in the blinds. If calling put you all in, you are about 0.9 SB +EV on the call compared to folding. However, this EV is mostly negated by your position if you have a deep stack in a multiway pot. Add in the negative EV of any mistakes you might make postflop. It is easy to make a 5-SB mistake postflop, and it is hard to get a board where you can make opponents make such large mistakes to compensate. You really need to be playing against horrid opponents to make the preflop call.

I fold this flop, too. SB bets, and you have 5 players behind you. Several players have probably hit this flop better than you. Someone with as little as kings up has a right to take a shot at this flop, and if that person gets raised, you have extremely low equity in the pot and no idea where you stand.

Effen

TxRedMan · #8 05-08-2007, 11:25 PM

Fold preflop, and on the flop.

In a loose low limit O8 game, in a hand that's played multiway, someone almost invariably will have xxJT

Fiasco · #9 05-09-2007, 06:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You have great odds for a preflop call if you are all-in. In fact, you have just slightly less equity than typically calling hands in a loose game. The problem is that the hand is almost impossible to play postflop. If you get a flop that you like, you will often only get action from better hands, and you will often fold the best hand post-flop. These factors don't show up in equity calculations.

[/ QUOTE ] Very well put. Good post.