An interesting situation I encountered today

[KSOT]

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.25/$0.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $10.75
UTG+1: $109.75
CO: $624.10
Button: $0
Hero: $103.85
BB: $7.75

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

(yeah yeah I know fold pre-flop I was bored)

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($2.5, 6 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $2.5</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises all-in $10.25</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero...?</font>

Clearly I called here because they were both so short stacked and the pot justified it. Obviously they both had 9s and they each had an 8 as well which of course hit the turn. What I wonder is, assuming I'm sure they both have 9s and are going to get it all-in, approximately how deep do these guys need to be for me to muck my hand? I'm a pretty big dog (in Omaha terms) to a large number of unique kickers, so unless there are a lot of common hole cards among them I am in trouble. I may not want to get involved here at all as stack sizes increase, correct?

[Troll_Inc]

Not that you asked, but I don't think I'd complete the preflop blind bet.

And I agree with you that as the stack sizes vs pot increase, you will want to muck. They can just call and are you going to know if they filled? (Although I haven't checked to see if this is actually the case when you are against two opponents vs one...and I'm too lazy now.)

This sort of hand goes way up in value as you increase pairs, i.e. 77's full of 9's is much different than T's full of Queens.

Also, if possible you'd factor in knowledge of whether or not your opponent is the type to go broke with just a 9.

[KSOT]

[ QUOTE ]
This sort of hand goes way up in value as you increase pairs, i.e. 77's full of 9's is much different than T's full of Queens.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am fairly sure this is incorrect in this situation. Can you provide any reason?

[PLOlover]

I may be way off here but I think you're good because you can't be behind on the flop because no one can have 97 since you have three of them in your hand, so you will get outdrawn by 18 outs(or less) twice which of course is a lot, but you are getting 2-1 on your money. Actually I would guess you are about a little less than even money to win the hand.

So I think you get it in on the flop here all day long.

[KSOT]

[ QUOTE ]
I may be way off here

[/ QUOTE ]

You are.

7s 7c Ad 7d - 25.68%
9s Qc Kh Jh - 43.24%
Ts 9c 8c 6h - 31.08%

[Ribbo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This sort of hand goes way up in value as you increase pairs, i.e. 77's full of 9's is much different than T's full of Queens.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am fairly sure this is incorrect in this situation. Can you provide any reason?

[/ QUOTE ]

On a KKJ flop if you hold JJ a player may toss his K876 fearing being stone cold dead to KJ.
That same player wont fold K876 on a 664 flop to your 44.

[Cadence Lauren]

A few other factors to consider..

Taking the example of 777x on a 799 board vs TTTx on a TQQ board:

1) Fewer overcards can come to the Ts than the 7s, so fewer boats can be made that are higher than yours, but

2) Players are more likely to hold higher pairs than lower pairs, so it's more likely that you are up against QQxx on the second board than 99xx on the first board, but

3) Villains are more likely to go broke with trip Qs than with trip 9s.

Ambivalence, thy name is Omaha.

[PLOlover]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
I may be way off here



You are.

7s 7c Ad 7d - 25.68%
9s Qc Kh Jh - 43.24%
Ts 9c 8c 6h - 31.08%


[/ QUOTE ]

well that is the worst case scenario, but yeah i a bit optomistic.

Omaha Hi Simulation
398,401 trials (Randomized)
board: 7h9h9d
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
7s7cAd7d 39.54% 157,547 0
9s*** 30.27% 111,210 18,739
9c*** 30.19% 110,905 18,739

[PLOlover]

I was thinking that if you had a 15 out draw against you with 2 cards to come you would be a 50/50. where did I go wrong with this thinking? oh i guess I was thinkjing in holdem terms but in omnaha the seen unseen cards change cause so many are in your hand i guess.

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I may be way off here

[/ QUOTE ]

You are.

7s 7c Ad 7d - 25.68%
9s Qc Kh Jh - 43.24%
Ts 9c 8c 6h - 31.08%

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty unlikely that they have 3 unique sidecards, and even one duplicate gives you 38% equity, so I'd say you can probably put in any amount of money. And if your stacks were super-deep and they "went to war", it would probably be because they both had ace kickers -- in which case you would have at least 42% equity.