PLO8 - Nut flush draw and backdoor low - playable?

[bbartlog]

You don't absolutely need the three. I goofed up the original calculation (edited result below): Odds are like this:

7 on turn plus 3 or 8 on river: (3/43 * 6/42)
3 on turn plus A,2,4,6,7 river : (3/43 * 13/42)
A,2,4,6 on turn plus 3 on river : (10/43 * 3/42)
8 on turn plus 7 on river : (3/43 * 3/42)

Add it all up and it's 96/(43*42) or 5.31%. But for EV purposes I think you have to assume that your opponent will fold some of the time when the board ends up KT543. He may also have a higher straight some tiny fraction of the time...

[I dunno]

Yeah I missed that you didn't always have to have a three to make a straight, thus the reason I don't ever really consider backdoor straights as outs while at the table. They're are just too hard to figure out on the spot. I guess it would be possible to make certain groupings of hands that can make backdoor straights, but I would imagine that this would be very inacurate. But then again, when you are talking margins of only a few percentage points it might not make much of a difference.

I just wondered because backdoor lows and flushes are often considerations when making decisions.

[driller]

Yeah, because if the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] falls, u want to ask for a new deck [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[DonnyBoston]

I think it was worth atleast seeing the turn. Especially if its a low card to give you the nut low, you increase odds much more. But again, its chasing and if you didn't hit that heart or low then you'd be hung out to dry with no high..