Blind defense w/ QJo

emKay · #1 10-02-2006, 11:29 AM

Every street is debateable. He is 40/10/2.9 after not-too-many hands.
I'm especially interested in the turn and river play.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO 3-bets, Hero calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks with the intention of calling...

___ · #2 10-02-2006, 11:41 AM

I prefer a flop check/raise to the turn check/raise, but I can see where you are going with things. The problem with this turn card is there are lots of holdings he probably isn't folding: any decent diamond, AQ/AJ, AT, AK, JJ+. In fact, this is one of the worst turn cards you could have chosen to check/raise.

If you check/raise the flop you can get lots of folds from overcards on a blank turn, and while you might have success check/raising a blank turn instead (it's seen as a powerful move), the board is not conducive to it here. By waiting for the turn you are paying 2.5 BB to bluff instead of 2 BB, as well as facing the risk that you will put in another BB as you did here. You don't have a hand to play for high stakes, and I'm having problems thinking of hands that he will fold to a turn check/raise that a flop check/raise + turn bet wouldn't also fold.

The main "advantage" of waiting for the turn to check/raise is to see if an ugly card is going to fall since villain is almost always peeling here. I think whether such an advantage even exists is debateable.

emKay · #3 10-02-2006, 11:48 AM

Good points. I didn't think about a flop c/r. I c/r the turn because I have hit a very strong draw. Do you really expect him to call with AQ/AJ no diamond?

___ · #4 10-02-2006, 11:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Good points. I didn't think about a flop c/r. I c/r the turn because I have hit a very strong draw.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not as strong as AJ.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2109717
pokenum -h qc jd - ah jc -- 8s 8d td kd
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 8s Kd Td 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qc Jd 14 31.82 30 68.18 0 0.00 0.318
Jc Ah 30 68.18 14 31.82 0 0.00 0.682

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really expect him to call with AQ/AJ no diamond?

[/ QUOTE ]
Unequivocally.

Bullitos · #5 10-02-2006, 06:58 PM

That doesnt make sense, he obviously doesn't know you have QJ, when you face him with a turn check/raise there is no way he is calling it with AJ (no diamond). He will put you on a K, 8, two pair, flush draw and probably fold.

I do agree with the points given in your first post, but I do think a flop and turn call would be a good line too. This guy is really agressive and by check/raising this flop he will 3-bet it a lot. This would suck, so call flop, call turn and check/fold river is ok too imo.

PokerSparky · #6 10-02-2006, 07:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer a flop check/raise to the turn check/raise

[/ QUOTE ]

___ · #7 10-02-2006, 07:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That doesnt make sense, he obviously doesn't know you have QJ, when you face him with a turn check/raise there is no way he is calling it with AJ (no diamond). He will put you on a K, 8, two pair, flush draw and probably fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
The most common mistake I see moderately loose players make is that they call too much when the odds are close but obviously insufficient.

Villain with AJ/AQ will probably put you on the following range: Kx, 8x, Tx, made flush, flush draw, straight draw. He will discount 8x because no one has trips, will discount the made flush because you would have check/raised the flop, and once that is done a call with an overcard and a gutshot seems totally reasonable.

Do I think hero should call with AQ in villain's situation: not without a diamond. Do I think that most villains with the stats presented will call "incorrectly" here, putting us in a pinch when trying to semi-bluff? Yes. It is possible that this situation is similar to the one in "3 barrel against an unknown?" and that this sets up a profitable river bluff against villains who will call with high card hands better than yours, but I think the expense of putting in two big bets on the turn is too great to warrant this dangerous parlay.