(5/10) Turn semi-bluff. Good/Bad?

[gopnik]

Villain is unknown. I have not been getting out of line before this hand.

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5/$10
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
4 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6SB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>...

[img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[Guruman]

what hands is he folding? He's never folding a spade, so that 's 1/4 of his range righ there.

He's never folding an overpair.

He's never folding Tx.

You're praying that he has a red KQ and is weak-tight.
I don't bother in a 4 bet pot.

[___]

[ QUOTE ]
what hands is he folding? He's never folding a spade, so that 's 1/4 of his range righ there.

He's never folding an overpair.

He's never folding Tx.

You're praying that he has a red KQ and is weak-tight.
I don't bother in a 4 bet pot.

[/ QUOTE ]
&lt;3

[Mossberg]

Very bad IMO.

[sharpie]

Location

[gopnik]

[ QUOTE ]
Very bad IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
care to explain? You do see that I have a double gutshot and that if he has spadeless overs, he cannot call me?

[Carmine]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Very bad IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]
care to explain? You do see that I have a double gutshot and that if he has spadeless overs, he cannot call me?

[/ QUOTE ]

If we apply some math to the situation villian needs to fold the turn better than 20% of the time to make raising better than calling. I have given Hero's hand 6 outs, but have also considered villian will call a river bet which he may not, however hero's Ace outs may be good so I figure I'm in the ballpark with that 20% number.

So does an unknown fold 20% to a player who has been playing straightforward up to this point?

Actually I just realized we need to consider a re-raise by villian which puts us in a 9BB pot that we are going to want to call with 6 outs hoping we are not drawing dead.

I'm going to say calling is better than raisng here as I think we were pushing it hoping villian folds 20% without even considering the re-raise situation

[GT123]

Unknown. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I think the discussion of this hand should end right here.
How would you know villain can't call a turn raise? you don't even have a read. lmao.

[Bullitos]

I agree with GT123, when I read unknown I already disagreed with a semi-bluf, you need to have some reads to do this.

[bobhalford]

I don't mind this play at all when we have some idea about how villain plays the game. Since he is unknown, the play is not as good, but still ok. I mean, we may have 8 clean outs (or more if BB doesn't hold a spade) so checking behind on the river when we miss won't cost anything.

But if I were playing the hand I would just call and raise river when I hit. Notice the 9 gives him a higher straight if he holds a Jack. A spade could spell trouble. He could 3-ball you on the turn. A couple bad things about this play.

Some good things: he may fold a better hand because of the scary board. You may earn an extra bet when you hit and bet the river.

So I guess I lean towards the call button, but I really don't think it matters a great deal either way. Certainly I think there is folding potential on this turn vs. the right player holding the right hand. I think that if I'm running well and feeling the magic I'm more likely to mess around like this. But I think without a decent read, you are better off just calling. But no biggie either way.