Question for the Math guys, I'm lost.

rush66 · #1 11-12-2007, 11:39 PM

What is the better line in this situation. This NFL game tonight. Sea is up 17-0 at half. The halftime over/under line is 17 to open and the halftime spread is -4. Now Im wondering what the "better" lines is here. 17u -101 or 17.5u -125. I feel like there is a lot to consider here, especially since its a 2h line. Im assuming I have to consider the 1h score?? Meaning how often a game lands on 34. How much is a 17 2h worth with a spread of 4. I have no clue where to start, maybe Imben has a database for 2h totals? Thanks.

Rush

Edit: Im more concerned with how to determine which is the better line in the future, on lines similar to this (not just 17), not this one in particular.

Austiger · #2 11-13-2007, 12:24 AM

The half point is obviously going to be worth a lot more in a halftime spread than a full game, and even more in a low scoring game like this...but I doubt it's worth 24 cents. Just my instincts talking. I doubt you're going to find anyone with relevant data to help you out here.

youtalkfunny · #3 11-13-2007, 03:51 AM

I don't think there's any definitive right answer. All we can do is offer our best guess, so this is NOT a question for "the math guys".

Here are some things to consider:

--Yes, a half-point is worth more in a halftime bet than in a game. If you guessed that it's worth twice as much, I wouldn't argue with you.

--17 and 20 are the "key numbers" in NFL halftimes, probably as strong as the 3 in NFL sides. I'm pretty sure Wong's book addresses this, and I don't feel like dusting off my copy to look for you. Sorry, I'm just a lousy person. So getting off the 17 is worth much, much more than getting off of, say, 19.

Bottom line: Yes, I'd pay 24 cents to get off the 17--but not much more than that.

And no, the first half score does not indicate how likely the second half is to land on the number--unless you saw something in the way the game has been played up to that point that makes you think the oddsmakers grossly erred when they made the over/under for the game. For example, if the game had a high total coming in, but neither team can make a first down, AND you think from watching that's not just a byproduct of variance**, AND the halftime total isn't adjusted too much to take than into account, THEN I would say that the second half probably won't land on the key number.

** = When Peyton Manning throws four picks, and the Indy special teams allow two TD returns, all in the first half...that's an example of variance.

hedgie43 · #4 11-13-2007, 04:26 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think there's any definitive right answer. All we can do is offer our best guess, so this is NOT a question for "the math guys".

[/ QUOTE ]

Who comes up with the "best guess"? Answer: the "math guys".

rjp · #5 11-13-2007, 01:25 PM

I'll answer this question during the offseason--that's when I plan on figuring it out. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

rush66 · #6 11-13-2007, 05:26 PM

Ill be looking forward to that rjp. Are you gonna be doing just football? I was wondering about basketball halves as well, though I think they are a little easier.

rjp · #7 11-13-2007, 05:51 PM

There are a host of distributions I want to better understand. I'm currently wading my way through the NHL.

2nd half distributions for any sport will likely be the last thing on my list, simply because it relies a lot on the full game expectation compared to what has happened in the first half. This would probably be easier to do with a database of historical lines, but I prefer not to use historical lines for data analysis.

Actually this is more from a predictive standpoint. If you were to know that the 2nd half total distribution has a mean of say 16, then I could tell you the approximate value of 17 and 17.5 with relative ease (although I don't have this information handy). I guess I am coming at it from a handicapping perspective, as you have to use more than just the full game line to determine the 2nd half mean.