Myth of the semibluff push? (GSN High Stakes Poker)

[nawhead]

I have all three seasons of HSP, and I've been watching them continuously for the past few weeks. At first I just watched for the fun of it, but then on repeat viewings, I started to really analyze every hand. And after really studying all the hundreds of hands played, the one fact that I've come to is that the "good" high stakes players don't push or raise on draws unless they really believe their 2nd pair/ace high is the best hand.

Maybe it's the fact that a lot of these guys come from mixed game limit backgrounds, but the flat call with a draw, even combo draws, seems to be the preferred line.

The only players that did raise/push on 8+ outer draws routinely was Farha (hold'em donk), Matusow (cash game donk), Negreanu (on bad beat tilt), Eli Elezra (is this guy even a winning player?), Esfandiari (fps addict), Sheikhan (fish), Brian Townsend, and Illya Trincher. The one person who I thought would push in on the draw at least once, Doyle Brunson, never did. The only times Doyle ever pushed was with a straight, boat, overpair, and AK preflop on a tiny pot.

So this "put a man to a decision for all his chips" business by Doyle is a myth I think. The man who coined that phrase never put a man to a test for all his chips, not ever, on a less than (what he believed to be) the best hand.

Even more eye opening to me was that these high stakes players pure bluff/gutshot raised more than straight/flush draw raised. We know the Brad Booth check-raise allin with a gutshot verus Ivey's overpair, but then there's the 3-bet allin by Greenstein with JT on a K44 board versus Elezra's KJ cb raise. The general reasoning seemed to be that a regular draw has good equity, so calling is ok, but longshots have low equity, so raising/pushing is preferred.

So considering this, and considering they're worth millions. Are they right? Or are the 2/4 NL "pros" who push their nut flush draws right? Is flat-calling with 8+ outers and raising with 0-6 outers the real optimal play?

[PNXRMX]

Maybe they don't do it, because the other players at the table would see right through it and call. Not only that, but these guys can handle being "put to the test for all their chips". Doyle's strategy is about playing against average donks, not professionals. Would you seriously expect these guys to play 'by the book' at a table full of pro's?

[allbad]

different games call for different strategies. 2/5 NL is a much different game that 2K/5K for sure.

[Brocktoon]

Its not about the other players "seeing right through it" or the level they are playing. Its a simple matter of how big their stack is in relation to the blinds and pot.

The minimum buy-in on HSP is somethign like 167 BBs and a lot of guys buy in for WAY more than that. Obviously you're not going to push in with a naked flushdraw for 30 times the pot on the flop. A pro wouldn't do that against ANY player, at ANY stake, because its a mathematically stupid play.

If the stacks were a lot shorter, like they are late in a tournament, then you'd see guys shoving draws all the time, even the "good" high stakes players on HSP.

[Fermion5]

I believe OP stated that the players don't raise/push often as a semibluff. Not just shove all in, of course that would be dumb.

[Lego05]

I don't think there are too many 2/4 pros whose default play is to push a nut flush draw. However, with stack sizes normal to online games not raising with a 15 out draw on the flop seems it would normally be silly to me.

If you really want to know post some of these hands (better off in one of the strategy forums).

[vhawk01]

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I believe OP stated that the players don't raise/push often as a semibluff. Not just shove all in, of course that would be dumb.

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Right but making a big raise with a draw when you still have a ton of bets behind is oftentimes a lot worse of a play than trying to hit big draws cheaply with a ton of bets behind. First, you open yourself to a big reraise which will force you to fold (because there is still a lot of room left for your opponent to push) and second, you get more money in when you are behind. The trade-off is the fold equity, which favors raising. The point is, deep stacked cash games with aggro players calls for a different strategy than the vast majority of TV poker.

[nawhead]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I believe OP stated that the players don't raise/push often as a semibluff. Not just shove all in, of course that would be dumb.

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Right but making a big raise with a draw when you still have a ton of bets behind is oftentimes a lot worse of a play than trying to hit big draws cheaply with a ton of bets behind. First, you open yourself to a big reraise which will force you to fold (because there is still a lot of room left for your opponent to push) and second, you get more money in when you are behind. The trade-off is the fold equity, which favors raising. The point is, deep stacked cash games with aggro players calls for a different strategy than the vast majority of TV poker.

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That's a really spot on explanation. Whew. Now I can go back to raising with my draws when I'm stuck and have 60 bb left. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[s33w33d]

You're right, but as already pointed out, this is a function of how deep the stacks are vs. this play. When I play NL no buyin, my buyin is always 166-200BBs, so I'm rarely in need of going allin on a draw.