AK PF kinda sticky situation, Stars 25 buy in

[black666]

[ QUOTE ]
If he reraised w/ TT+, AQ+, and folds all but QQ+ to your push, that means:

He calls 12/45 times.
Or, almost 75% of the time, if you push you win 17k in chips and end at 64k chips.
If he calls, you lose 70% of the time, end up with 104k 30% of the time.

Pushing: (0.75)*(64k) + (0.25)*(0.3)*(104k) = 55.8k = +8.8k average.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not a fan of the BB's re-raise range. No way is he re-raising an UTG-raising big stack OOP with TT or AQ. Most of the time I even just call with JJ here. What is the point in building a pot OOP against a guy that is also 50BB deep with a hand that can be beat right now?

My range for him would be JJ+, AK. Everything else just calls behind.

Let's see how many possible hands villain can hold here. Because we already have an Ace and a King, there are the following possible combinations left:
AA 3
KK 3
QQ 6
JJ 6
AK 9
That makes a total of 27 hands. He is calling our push with 12 of them (44%) and folding the other 15 (56%). The math would look like this:

Pushing: (0.56)*(64k) + (0.44)*(0.3)*(104k) = 49.5k = -0.5k average => -EV

If you adjust the calling range so that villain only calls the shove with AA/KK (which a thinking player should do given the stacks, the position of hero and the action) it gets even worse.

So I guess we are all correct.
If you think that BB's re-raise range is TT+,AQ+ and he would call a push with QQ+, it's a +EV shove.
If you think that BB's re-raise range is JJ+,AK and he would call a push with QQ+, it's a -EV shove .. and it gets even worse the tighter you think he is.

For me, his re-raise range is JJ+, AK and the shove-calling range KK+ (maybe QQ+ if the other villain also calls the shove) for the following reasons:
-) we are on the bubble
-) we are both 50BB deep, so we should take less risk against each other
-) Hero raised UTG, which tightens the re-raise range for BB and also the calling range after Hero shoved. A thinking player should give us respect here.
-) The BB re-raised very small and he is giving us great odds to call or even induce a shove. There is no way he wants us gone.

Given the fact how boarderline this decisions is, I would just fold. We still have a HUGE stack and can find other situations where our edge is much bigger .. or where we at least know for certain that we have an edge.

[Stumpy]

Black,

You have several errors above.

First, folding leaves you with 47k. You don't get your 3k raise back.
That makes ending at 49.5k +2.5k, +EV and +$EV to push.

Second, adjusting his calling range to KK+ makes it better, not worse.
(21/27)*(64k) + (6/27)*(.185)*(104k) = 54k

As I said before, it is the folds that makes this play good, not your odds when called.
Note (21/27)*64k = 49.8k, meaning if you lost every time you were called it is still +EV.

I think it's a serious error to assume the average player in this tournament is only reraising JJ+,AK. I don't doubt that is all you're reraising, but to use that as the player average is far too tight, and you're missing a lot of value that way.

[black666]

[ QUOTE ]
First, folding leaves you with 47k. You don't get your 3k raise back.
That makes ending at 49.5k +2.5k, +EV and +$EV to push.


[/ QUOTE ]

Oops ... correct. Ok, so this actually is a +EV shove given that range. I still don't like it because we are so deep and it's "only" +2.5BB ... I guess I would like a bigger edge if my whole 50BB stack is at risk in one hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Second, adjusting his calling range to KK+ makes it better, not worse.
(21/27)*(64k) + (6/27)*(.185)*(104k) = 54k

[/ QUOTE ]

And again correct [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] ... that's why I've moved from P5s to 2p2. People here actually read the posts and underline their opinions with facts [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Reading through my post again I think I meant that it gets worse the tighter the re-raise range of BB is. Which means that he calls a shove with a bigger percentage of his re-raise range.

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a serious error to assume the average player in this tournament is only reraising JJ+,AK. I don't doubt that is all you're reraising, but to use that as the player average is far too tight, and you're missing a lot of value that way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess I'll adjust my game a little bit then ... but I still think that re-raising 99 or TT out of the BB against another big stack from UTG is a major spew.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
Dave,

You're starting to sound like a knuckle-head here.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks.
[ QUOTE ]

All you've shown is that you don't know what his range is, you're not taking this hand very seriously, and you just want people to say "call."


[/ QUOTE ]

No, I've said that I think BB's range here is TT+, maybe 99, and maybe AQ

[ QUOTE ]

Your modified re-raiser range has litle to no effect.


[/ QUOTE ]

I mean, I added more possible holdings that he could call with and be ahead. It has some effect, we've doubled his range.
[ QUOTE ]

You've said the caller is an idiot with some piece of trash hand, but now he's shoving his 21k extra chips in after a re-raise and a shove 5 from the money. Great.


[/ QUOTE ]

I never said he had a piece of trash hand. I think he's likely to have something like a medium pair, maybe AQ. I just think he's a donk because he flat called so much of his stack (although now that I think of it, it's only ~18%), but if it was me I'd probably be pushing to isolate or folding. Unless he's calling with AA/KK, but he didn't seem smart enough to be capable of that.

Once he sees a shove, I think he calls a lot of the time because he figures he's committed, and knows the other guy is gonna be in. Durr, gotta call now. Pot odds, etc. Then agin he might fold too, as Id seen him making "tourney life" mindset indicative decisions. Regardless, if it was just HU with him, I'd obviously push AK, but as the hand goes, I'm more concerned about the other guy with the big stack.
[ QUOTE ]

Why wouldn't you want to shove and isolate him then?


[/ QUOTE ]

See above, but also it's much more about teh fact that I think BB never folds to a shove. Or raraly does here. Something about the situation just stinks to me, which is what I was trying to say. I think BB has TT+ here, and might only consider folding TT, JJ (that was the point of my original post), but I doubt he even folds those hands. Very little chance he has air, because if he was squeezing or something, he'd have raised more or pushed.

So your whole point about "it's the folds that make this correct" is kinda my point, I doubt BB is ever folding. Yes there is some overlay in there because of my raise and call and the blinds and stuff, but THIS DEEP it doesn't outweigh a likely 57/43. With 20 BBs I'd instapush, and I rarely play scared of high pairs (like very rarely to never), but here, thats why I think a call is best.

[greggg230]

A call is 100% the best, IMO. Has no one realized that the possibility of flopping TPTK is justified by pot odds alone? No reason this hand has to be played for stacks. The only real disaster situation is is a king flops and he has AA. Flopping the case ace or king against AA / KK is going to be rare enough and that's just a cooler at 50BB.

[Dave D]

Incidently I just thought of this.

If it had gone I raise, MP2 pushes, BB repushes, I would have called. MP2 would be trying to isolate me (obv) and AA/KK doesn't push here. BB would probably also be trying to isolate, same thing.

If it had gone MP2 calls, BB pushes, I'd have repushed. Same reasoning, BB would just call or raise less with QQ+, a push looks like it doesn't want a call and/or wants to isolate, ie not QQ+.

Should I post results btw (not that they matter).

[Dave D]

By the way, someone said 2000 entrants, only like 1300 in this one or so, its the nightly 20k guaranteed.

Anyway, results were that I called as did MP2. Flop came 456 all clubs. I had no club. BB pushed, I folded and so did the other guy, saying he had AK. Villian showed QQ.

[black666]

[ QUOTE ]
If it had gone I raise, MP2 pushes, BB repushes, I would have called.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about that one .. you need a better hand to call a shove with than to shove yourself. As was verified by the math a couple posts earlier, it's the number of villain's folds, that make a shove +EV. Here you get no folds at all and some of your outs maybe in the hand of MP2 and/or BB.

[s33w33d]

One reason you shove here with AK vs. calling is that you really want to see all 5 cards vs. 22-QQ, instead of just 3.

[Dave D]

[ QUOTE ]
One reason you shove here with AK vs. calling is that you really want to see all 5 cards vs. 22-QQ, instead of just 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

And normally that's exactly what I would say, but again nobody's really talking about the fact that both of us are so deep. Again, easy push for that reason with 20-30 BBs, but 50...