5/10 UB 98s vs TAG

[lank4ever]

Villian is a 2+2er and we both know that we know that. We don't have a huge history. He's 26/20/2 over 400 in my database.

I hate all my river options. He shouldn't be calling with a anything besides maybe AQ that I beat when I bet, but he is probably aggressive enough to bet some of those hands if I check.

Ultimate Bet
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $5./$10
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Endie is CO with
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Endie raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Button 3-bets</font>, 2 folds, Endie calls.

Flop: (7.4SB, 2 players)
Endie checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets</font>, Endie calls.

Turn: (4.7BB, 2 players)
Endie checks, Button checks.

River: (4.7BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Endie bets</font>,

[wray]

I think I like. Pretty thin value bet against solid player. He could check turn w/ 99 or TT if he knows you don't call w nothing but this kinda screams AQ.

[Nick C]

Hell if I know. It's not a bluff, because he ain't folding a better hand, but what are you going to instead -- check-call? (Will he bluff AcQx if you check it to him twice on the big streets? Again, I don't know. Then again, I'm not positive he's calling with the AQ either, and while a raise does look suspicious at this point, can we really call one of those?)

Actually, the main argument for a check is that maybe will check again with a hand like TcTd that he had no intention of folding.

But the bet seems like the best -- or least bad -- option that you have.

[AdamL]

I think this might be a check-fold.

[PokerSparky]

I don't hate check fold, bet fold, or check call here. That is to say I have no clue what's best.

[Nick C]

Okay, what the hell, let's try to approximate a range for Villain (because I think check-folding the river would be bad [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]).

So I don't know, maybe something like this:

AQ = er, 10? (I want one club in there most of the time, but not two, so I'm discounting/approximating).

ATs = like 1 or less

66 and worse = 6, maybe(?), based on the idea that Villain will 3-bet light but then perhaps give up after getting called on this flop?

Some 3-bet with junk for the sake of a fellow 2+2er = 2(?)


Meanwhile . . .

QQ/TT/99 = 15

AJ = 8

QJ/JT/rando-type light 3-bets = 3(?)

Some "tricky" slowplay just for the sake of a fellow 2+2er = er, 3 (?)


I don't claim any sort of precision to this range, but check-folding seems bad, doesn't it?

The main problem with betting that I see is that we open ourselves up to being outplayed a little more than with a check, because we could face a raise that's only sort of credible and then have the choice of either paying it off because the raise isn't entirely believable (does Villain really have AJ?) or folding to it and possibly getting owned.

[sharpie]

I like it. I think he'll call with ace high alot, and AQ/AT/A9 is in his range. He will hardly ever bet these if you check. TT/99 are possible, but I think AJ or QQ usually bets the turn.

[WuTank]

I would play check call here.
He calls the Bet only with a Hand that beats hero, and folds unimproved Ax here.
With c/c you give him a chance to lose 1 bet with bluffing.We are calling anyway so i think c/c is superior here.

[TheHip41]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it. I think he'll call with ace high alot, and AQ/AT/A9 is in his range. He will hardly ever bet these if you check. TT/99 are possible, but I think AJ or QQ usually bets the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]


a good TAG is not calling with AQ on the river. The person who raised PF is not calling with 55 on that flop, so he either has a pair or a draw.

Most of the draws hit the turn.

I think I might peel the flop, but once that is the turn, I'm done with the hand.

If I'm the villian, my range on the turn will be AQ, AT, QQ, TT, 99, AJs, AJo, and if i'm feeling frisky PF, QJs.

Look at that range, you are beating AQ and AT, that's it.

I think this is a "check the river and hope he checks a better hand" time.

THere is minimal value in a bet here.

Basically all your options suck, I just check, and hope TT gives me a free showdown.

[rigoletto]

I agree with Wu. Only hand he can value bet here is a J which would often bet the turn. So he'll bet more when we are ahead than he'll call.