Suspected cheating on AP

[citanul]

TT,

I'd be glad to do a little talking about the job thus far (even the poker related stuff), but I have a huge favor to ask anyone who has actually read all this nonsense and kept abreast of the situation:

Steve just asked me if anyone had looked over a large sample of this guy's hands to *actually* see if he was cheating, and in the blatant way that everyone says. Specifically he's looking for someone who has shown some stat breakdown that says something like:

Big pile of hands won money at showdown % 100% or whatever.

Basically it's one thing if the dude just calls a ton on the river and so he wins frequently with bizarro hands, but it's another thing if he always value bets the worst hand, always raises when last to act wit the best hand, and never calls with a loser.

I'm sure that someone has done something like this, but with the sheer volume of threads, I don't even really know where to start (though obviously there's some good options for where to start).

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So our poker research at the moment:

We're working with a site that is providing us with anonymized hands (10s of millions), including every hand that was ever played by a subset of their players. The first thing we're doing is an analysis of results, to show that poker is in fact a skill game. (We're not especially interested in this, but the site is.) Then we were going to look at more interesting things, looking at what sorts of skills people actually have, what things actually work, etc, then we're going to also look at collusion, from STTs to cash games. And a few other things, of course.