**Atlanta Braves offseason thread

[Vyse]

If you actually want to get serious, this should be easy.

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OK, let's try other words you might not have a problem with: smug, arrogant, elitist, bitchy....

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You know, saying something without explaining why isn't a great reason to accomplish anything. Unless, well, you're just trolling and flaming for no reason. If so, enjoy.

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First, it is indeed a possibility

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Is anything not a "possibility"?

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that Anderson is the short term replacement for Andruw at CF.

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Anderson had a 666 OPS at age 24 in Triple-A -- in the PACIFIC COAST LEAGUE, a substantial hitter's league.

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Just something to bridge the gap until Schafer or Lillibridge is ready. That was partly the motivation for completing the deal. Frank Wren himself stated that if there were no other options for a one year replacement, and if you have looked at the market for CF'ers there may not be, Anderson may very well slide into the slot on opening day. He will certainly compete for it.
http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sp...116.html?imw=Y

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You can believe all you want over what comes out of executives' mouth in what amounts to PR spin. No MLB team is going to start a 25-year-old who cannot hit in the minor leagues at center field, and even if they did, you get no credit for even remotely assuming / guessing / predicting that would happen because it's a stupid prediction. No MLB team does something that stupid, not even the Royals.

I'd be willing to give you 5:1 odds for whatever dollar amount you want that it doesn't happen.

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Second, people are saying Chipper is selfish. You disagree.

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Wrong. I'm not disagreeing that people are saying Chipper is selfish. That's not something you can really disagree with. I'm disagreeing that it matters in even the slightest of slightests.

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I am guessing that Smoltz knows Chipper better than you do.

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I'm guessing Chipper and the training staff know Chipper's injuries better than Smoltz.

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I recall that the time when that happened last summer was right before Chipper was about to take himself out of the lineup again, while the team was reeling, and go back on the DL for some other "Chipper" injury. I also recall that the very next day of the confrontation Chipper decided that he may not have needed to go on the DL, and promptly hit a home run that game and proceeded to go on one of the biggest second half tears of his career. Again, all with an injury that may have forced him to go on the DL had Smoltz not called him out.

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Human memories are notoriously faulty. I don't recall any such thing about Chipper going on the DL and then suddenly stopping and playing through an injury just because Smoltz told him to. But links would be appreciative, and I have no doubt that even if that were true that it wouldn't be remotely close to the whole story.

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Basically, get your facts straight before you start making "douchey" comments.

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Um, you didn't really have any facts. You had your memory...

[THAY3R]

I am starting to like you.

[rwperu34]

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I'd be willing to give you 5:1 odds for whatever dollar amount you want that it doesn't happen.

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16% is probably about right. The guys on their 40 man roster that could be the opening day CF are Anderson, Gregor Blanco, and that all time superstar Willie Harris. The Braves may not want to start Anderson in CF in an ideal world, but if a more reasonable option doesn't present itself, he would not be as terrible a stopgap as you make out. With Anderson's speed, he profiles as a quality 4th OF, and those are the types that slide in when there is an injury or a roster malfunction. The Braves definitley don't want to ink anybody to a long term deal, so if it comes to it, Anderson will start in CF, bat 8th, and the Braves will spend their money elsewhere. It doesn't matter what the executives say. One look at the Braves roster and you can see that it is a distinct possibility that Anderson is the team's 2008 primary CF. Kenny Lofton is looking mighty appealing to the Braves right about now.

[Vyse]

You forgot about Andruw Jones.

Or pretty much anyone else in the MLB. Hell, move Francoeur to CF, get any scrub in the corner OF or platoon. Anderson is below replacement level.

[rwperu34]

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You forgot about Andruw Jones.

Or pretty much anyone else in the MLB. Hell, move Francoeur to CF, get any scrub in the corner OF or platoon. Anderson is below replacement level.

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No, Anderson is not below replacement level. You forget about two little things called speed and defense. Even Nook Logan had a 2.0 WARP last year in ~350 PA. I'd put the over/under on Andersonas a regular CF at about 1.5. That makes Andruw Jones and his 7.5 projection worht about $15MM-$17MM to the Braves, exactly what he'll get via arb.

If Jones will accept a one year deal, arb or otherwise, that's a good move. The Braves are not a team that ink long term deals for overpriced veterans to block their top prospects. Moving Francouer to CF might not be terrible for one year, but I doubt they can do any better buying a RF when you factor in the loss of defense at two positioins. Anderson will be a bad regular CF, but if he plays average defense, his offense won't kill him to the point of being below replacement level. He will also cost a measly $300k. Whether or not buying a CF/RF is worth it depends on what they can get vs what else they can get for the money. To tell you the truth, this market is so barren, the Braves might just be best off throwing that money into their draft pool and trying to make do with Brandon Jones, Lillibridge, Blanco, and Anderson and see if they can't deal prospects at the deadline. The only other FA I can see that makes any sense is Luis Gonzalez. That would put Brandon Jones/Matt Diaz in RF and Frenchy to CF and be a terrible defensive OF. The other FA option would be to take the OF money and throw it at an injury risk pitcher.

BTW, the more I think about it, the more I think Lofton is the perfect fit for Atlanta (although I think he's a perfect fit for many teams). He'll project about 4.5 wins, so that's a 3 win improvement over Anderson and he'll only cost about $6MM-$7MM on a one year deal. The Braves have enough cheap depth in the OF to cover the time his old legs need to spend on the bench.

[Vyse]

Dude, he had a 666 OPS at Triple-A in the PCL. Wtf does that translate to in the MLB, EqA wise? .210? .200? Logan had a .241 EqA.

Speed and defense are basically the same. The two or three runs of supposedly plus baserunning Anderson may add are basically insignificant.

Ever heard of Geoff Jenkins? Cliff Floyd? Jeff DaVanon? Yep, taken right from Sheehan's column. None of these guys would require more than a one-year guaranteed contract. Super easy stuff. Go trade for a [censored] OF who will cost nothing.

The Braves aren't dumb. If they have Anderson in CF they substantially rape their chances of making the playoffs and cost themselves way too much. It's not happening.

[leehrat]

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BTW, the more I think about it, the more I think Lofton is the perfect fit for Atlanta (although I think he's a perfect fit for many teams). He'll project about 4.5 wins, so that's a 3 win improvement over Anderson and he'll only cost about $6MM-$7MM on a one year deal. The Braves have enough cheap depth in the OF to cover the time his old legs need to spend on the bench.

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He would be an ideal stopgap, but I don't think the Braves will have much interest in Lofton. He is about the only player that Bobby Cox never got along with and there was a reason he was shipped back to Cleveland after one all-star season in Atlanta.

[Suigin406]

i don't know too much about ur rotation, but if glavine is ur 4 starter, good value to signing him...

i'm looking forward to him throwing a no-no against us at some point this season coz u know it's gonna happen

[rwperu34]

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Dude, he had a 666 OPS at Triple-A in the PCL. Wtf does that translate to in the MLB, EqA wise? .210? .200? Logan had a .241 EqA.

Speed and defense are basically the same. The two or three runs of supposedly plus baserunning Anderson may add are basically insignificant.

Ever heard of Geoff Jenkins? Cliff Floyd? Jeff DaVanon? Yep, taken right from Sheehan's column. None of these guys would require more than a one-year guaranteed contract. Super easy stuff. Go trade for a [censored] OF who will cost nothing.

The Braves aren't dumb. If they have Anderson in CF they substantially rape their chances of making the playoffs and cost themselves way too much. It's not happening.

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PECOTA projected Anderson to an eqa in the neighborhood of ~.240 heading into this year. That will come down slightly. They had him with a defensive WARP of 2.0 over ~125 games. That won't come down. Even if he's a replacement level hitter, PECOTA will project him as a two win player. Giving him a projection of 1.5 is conservative.

Da Vanon's WARP the last three years? (-.3),1.5, 1.3, he's 34, and not good defensively. Da Vanon is clearly a worse option than Josh Anderson regardless of price.

The 35 year old Cliff Floyd's WARP over the last two years? 1.4 and 1.6. No, he's not suddenly going to stay healthy. He's good for 300 PA max. With Floyd you lose defense at THREE positions. Again, clearly a worse option than Josh Anderson regardless of price.

Geoff Jenkins is 33 years old and has posted WARPs of 3.3 in each of the last two years. He's got that 6.9 from 2005 to cling to. At least he's a clear upgrade in talent over Anderson. You'd still be downgrading defensively in two spots, which decreases some of the benefit. If Jenkins will sign a 1 year, $4MM deal, he'd be a wash with Anderson in terms of value, although probably worth it if they can't spend the money elsewhere. There is a strong argument that money could be better spent on draft picks in June allowing them to trade a prospect for a rental in the second half of the season.

For crying out loud! Brandon Jones and Gregor Blanco are better options than the first two guys you mentioned and still more cost effective than Jenkins. Those are the two guys you should be comparing Anderson against, not some old nag free agents.

[leehrat]

OK Vyse,

You seriously need me to explain? OK. You come on a SPORTS DISCUSSION BOARD, where we are just shooting the [censored] and speculating about our favorite teams, and promptly call the fans "uninformed", "stupid", etc. without backing up why. To add to the trollishness you than speculate that the Braves might take Andruw back, which is a much more remote possibility after we told him to walk than all the things said prior combined. You than proceed to defend your douchiness by saying some crap about rewarding people when they are right, and punishing when wrong (apparently because the opinion doesn't match your own), and calling perfectly reasonable statements "laughable, indefensible", and to top it off go on to admitting to being a dick. I am simply restating what you typed. Does that sum it up?

On other points, you admittedly establish that you think it is a complete joke that Anderson open the season as starter when it is instead a very real possibility (see link...you can also find many more if need be). Perhaps you would understand part of the reasoning if you looked beyond his minor league stats but at his limited mlb time.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/player...e?statsId=8105
While this obviously doesn't make him an all-star, he may also not be the complete scrub that you make him out to be. Frank Wren and the Braves scouting department obviously believe that he can be a player. You do not, and go on to say that even if he does become a starter, "you get no credit for even remotely assuming / guessing / predicting that would happen because it's a stupid prediction". Get credit???? I don't want him to be our starter, and hope that he isn't. Secondly, I never did predict that he would start. All I said is that it is a real possibility which you so abruptly dismissed because again Braves GM Vyse thinks it is "stupid".

Chipper Jones:
http://sports.aol.com/fanhouse/2007/...m-john-smoltz/
First, my memory is more accurate than your facts. Second, I am guessing Chipper and the the training staff may not know his injuries that well if John Smoltz is proven 100% correct. Then again though, you're right, Smoltz is always talking [censored] about teammates and should probably be ignored.
Third, if Chipper is selfish it certainly does matter if it gets in the way of his bat being in the lineup.

Thanks for playing

By the way, if you are compelled to call out and "punish" others on false assumptions, there is NO chance Francouer goes to CF. That possibility was shot down weeks ago.