COMMON FUNDAMENTAL SITUATION

[Adam Stewart]

[ QUOTE ]
so ure going to bet, check, fold to a bet? sounds like a winner (sarcasm)...

[/ QUOTE ]


If that's how you interpret, "KQ has showdown value", then you have some sort of maladapted logic, the likes of which the world has never seen.


(And I'm not sure if I'm being "sarcastic" here).


EDIT: Wait, wtf. You're drunk or something man:

[ QUOTE ]
esp when u have no showdown value, i like betting here, and if ure raised, i call and fold riv UI


[/ QUOTE ]


[ QUOTE ]
so ure going to bet, check, fold to a bet? sounds like a winner (sarcasm)...


[/ QUOTE ]




Adam

[Adam Stewart]

Okay, here's the thing, my automatic, intuitive play is to bet this flop nearly all the time.

But I just want to make sure this is the correct play, because I can see some reasons against doing so.


Let's start by putting the villains on hand ranges. While it is nearly impossible to put them on specific hands, we may be able to do some narrowing down from the rhealms of being completely random.

SB is TAG. He called 1.5 bets 'semi-cold' from the SB. This tells me that SB must have some sort of a decent hand. I'm thinking any pair, A,x, two cards ten or over, suited connecter/gappers ... (being generous here).

BB could have nearly anything. (FWIW, I meant to say he seemed "loose/passive" as opposed to "weak/passive" in my original post.)


The flop comes as it does: low cards with definite straight and flush draw possibilities.

Now, if I bet here, I think that the times I knock both villains out right then, are rare exceptions. I'd estimate my chances of taking the pot on the flop with bet are 10% at the most. The chance that I'll knock out a better hand (A,x, pocket pair, or paird board card) is zero, I would say.

What about the chance I still have the best hand? It is possible, but just how much? And more importantly, what is my overall equity to the river?

If we look at at my outs, I have 6 overcards, and a decent back-door flush draw. In this hand, I'd estimate my effective outs at being 5 at the most.




Soooo, these are the points I'm currently considering - and haven't yet made up my mind on the proper flop play. If anyone wants to jump in here and take over that'd be fine with me ... In the mean time, let's work on the proper flop play here!



Adam

[Vehn]

Basically only good things can happen when you bet and only bad things can happen when you check. Betting the flop makes everything simple - you get checkraised by either guy you can call and fold the turn u/i, you get called you can check behind the turn and see 5 cards and maybe a showdown for 1 sb, etc etc. I know you're thinking "well what about the SB, isn't his call scary with his relative range?" and yes it is and yes a lot of the time you don't have the best hand here on this flop but that really doesn't matter, what matters is the collective amount of things that can happen make betting more +ev than checking. If that makes any sense.

[Adam Stewart]

[ QUOTE ]
Basically only good things can happen when you bet and only bad things can happen when you check. Betting the flop makes everything simple - you get checkraised by either guy you can call and fold the turn u/i, you get called you can check behind the turn and see 5 cards and maybe a showdown for 1 sb, etc etc. I know you're thinking "well what about the SB, isn't his call scary with his relative range?" and yes it is and yes a lot of the time you don't have the best hand here on this flop but that really doesn't matter, what matters is the collective amount of things that can happen make betting more +ev than checking. If that makes any sense.

[/ QUOTE ]


ty

[benlj21]

Venh,
This is a very very very nice post. Thanks.

[bobbyi]

Wow, I can't imagine checking here. I guess threads like this help my understand why my postflop AF is about twice y'all's, you [censored] pansies.

bet

[mcvalenc]

As the pfr I check more flops than the average 2+2er but this is certainly not one of them. Fairly easy flop bet.