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#21
05-06-2007, 11:36 AM
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Re: Combo Draw, too fast?
prodonkey, you have to use pokerstove and assign villain some hands to come up with a more precise equity for our hand. i think ur ev calculations are off.
On a second note, nowhere did I state that it is correc to win $2 with a big hand. Besides, 50% equity hand is not a big hand. The hand has great potential to win $$$ when it hits though. Big hand has at least 70% all in equity on the flop in my books. peace out 
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#23
05-06-2007, 11:50 AM
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Re: Combo Draw, too fast?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Is this standard?
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#24
05-06-2007, 12:12 PM
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Re: Combo Draw, too fast?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn. [/ QUOTE ] Is this standard? [/ QUOTE ] The problem with waiting for the turn to shove is that your equity dramatically decreases with only one card to come. So no, it is not standard.
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#25
05-06-2007, 12:29 PM
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Re: Combo Draw, too fast?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Is this standard? [/ QUOTE ] We should be pushing flops on draw heavy boards with sets so we can push here. That said, both a PSR and a call will end up being +EV here, as long as we don't start pushing the money in once our equity drops versus an opponent that already indicated a propensity for calling. That's a good way to lose money. Versus a sophisticated opponent where pushing will look like a draw and a PSR will look like a protection raise, maybe a raise is better. Versus a calling station who will pay off even if the obvious draw comes in maybe a call is better. But standard? Standard is pushing.
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#26
05-06-2007, 12:34 PM
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Re: Combo Draw, too fast?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn. [/ QUOTE ] Is this standard? [/ QUOTE ] The problem with waiting for the turn to shove is that your equity dramatically decreases with only one card to come. So no, it is not standard. [/ QUOTE ] On a blank turn we are only 2:1 to win the hand, against a player who likes his hand enough to call a nice reraise on the flop with it. Now we are in a nasty position since the pot is big enough that villain is most likely committed, and just about anyway that this goes down we are now losing a big pot one third of the time. This is why trying to felt on the flop is best. If villain folds, we managed to take down the pot without actually making a hand. If villain calls, we are getting his stack enough to be profitable.
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#27
05-06-2007, 02:32 PM
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Re: Combo Draw, too fast?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Why not just reraise to 5.. and shove any turn. [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] Is this standard? [/ QUOTE ] We should be pushing flops on draw heavy boards with sets so we can push here. That said, both a PSR and a call will end up being +EV here, as long as we don't start pushing the money in once our equity drops versus an opponent that already indicated a propensity for calling. That's a good way to lose money. Versus a sophisticated opponent where pushing will look like a draw and a PSR will look like a protection raise, maybe a raise is better. Versus a calling station who will pay off even if the obvious draw comes in maybe a call is better. But standard? Standard is pushing. [/ QUOTE ] Not for me. Although your hand equity decreases with one card to come your fold equity increases (because the pot is bigger) but I don't think it compensates (he won't fold the turn enough) so I'm just being nitty [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I like a call best as I seem to get pot bets called thin when I hit and a cheap turn card when I don't. The $5 raise I'm not keen on and if I had to raise I probably would shove. It just seems silly semibluffing him out or flipping with him when you can often get a good look at the turn and river cards (I might bet the turn small on a blank so another minraise leaves me well-in) against someone who seems to be non-professional [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] Let him make turn and river mistakes. I bet he's good at it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]
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#28
05-06-2007, 02:38 PM
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Re: Combo Draw, too fast?
Thanks on all this input guys, I (admittedly) did not think through all of this when making my decision.
I basically saw a big combo draw (that I got for free in BB, sunk cost I know, but still...) and wanted to win it then and there. Calling his min-raise is definitely the safest play since I'm getting a free card on a massive draw, but it seems like I'm losing a lot of equity if the turn blanks. I may be a favorite on the flop, so it seems like I should be building the pot. After reading these suggestions, I like a reraise to $5 a lot, but I'm lost on how to play turn, C/c on blank turn (2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]) seems to turn my hand face up. I'll usually have odds to call close to a PSB with (hopefully) 15 clean outs, so do I c/c Turn and c/f River if I miss? (Note, because Villain is short, PSB from him is a shove, so suppose he had 100BB instead) On a side note, don't I want Villain to put me on a (weaker) draw, as opposed to something like a set? His calling range should be wider if he puts me on something like T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] than if he thought I flopped a set/two pair. Lot of good analysis here, btw. I'm curious to see how it all pans out.
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