Set gets 3bet on turn in limped pot

[paperboyNC]

Stats/Reads:
- BB is a regular, stats: 24/11/1.67.
- Never gets out of line.
- Plays scared with one pair.
- Only showdown with 2 pr, he slowed down after getting 3bet

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

Hero ($295.60)
MP3 ($201.25)
CO ($148.40)
Button ($175.55)
SB ($230.05)
BB ($254.20)
UTG ($76.80)
UTG+1 ($266.75)
MP1 ($199)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $2, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($9) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $6</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls $6, Button folds.

Turn: ($21) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $18</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $48</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $102</font>, Hero ?

What's his range after he 3bets?
- J8? he'd prolly call down
- 66? possible (I'm drawing to 1 out)
- 75? possible (I'm drawing to 10 outs)

What to do?

[mce86]

its the BB special of 75.
I'm going to drop this one based on your reads and 1.67.
And I dont advocate folding sets too often, but this one you can drop!

[paperboyNC]

[ QUOTE ]
its the BB special of 75.
I'm going to drop this one based on your reads and 1.67.
And I dont advocate folding sets too often, but this one you can drop!

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's imagine that he has 75 and we'll stack him 100% of the time we fill up. We're then calling $54 to win uh..

$48 + $ 102 + $20 + $144 = $314

So if we call the turn and fold when we miss, but stack him when we hit, we're getting 5.8 to 1 and are 3.4 to 1 to hit.

The problem comes if he makes much a small river bet that we change our mind and call (pot is $224 and he only bets $50, giving us over 5-1)

[Johnes Benjamin]

I don't know where you got $314, he started the hand with $254 so that is the most you can make from him.
This player is not going to stack everytime you fill up and he's holding a str8.
Calling to hit insures you will go broke when you hit and you are already behind. Furthermore, you will be stacked when 2 pair fills up.

This is a difficult fold to make and calling is what many relatively good players will do but the correct play at this point is a fold IMO.

[Renton]

raise flop as played fold

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
its the BB special of 75.
I'm going to drop this one based on your reads and 1.67.
And I dont advocate folding sets too often, but this one you can drop!

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's imagine that he has 75 and we'll stack him 100% of the time we fill up. We're then calling $54 to win uh..

$48 + $ 102 + $20 + $144 = $314

So if we call the turn and fold when we miss, but stack him when we hit, we're getting 5.8 to 1 and are 3.4 to 1 to hit.

The problem comes if he makes much a small river bet that we change our mind and call (pot is $224 and he only bets $50, giving us over 5-1)

[/ QUOTE ]
Another problem with that is villain might not have 75, he might have 88/66 instead and have us dead to 1 out.

[coordi]

His ahead range is larger than his behind range... doesnt that make this an easy fold? Putting him on 75 is like, "I can't fold so I'm going to put him on the one hand I can suckout on."

[GrandMelon]

[ QUOTE ]
raise flop as played fold

[/ QUOTE ]

[paperboyNC]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know where you got $314, he started the hand with $254 so that is the most you can make from him.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've put $56 in the pot and the other limpers put $5 in.