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#1
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Sports Statistics
Im really sick of the results oriented nature of sports and sports statistics. Part of what makes sports fun is the ability to be results oriented--to balance it with poker is very fun for me because I totally shun the results oriented side of my brain when im gambling, but when I watch sports I let myself get carried away.
However, there is a need for some better, more complicated statistics. The gist of what I want is to see more efficiency-based calculations. There are so many skewed stats that could be replaced by more meaningful efficiency stats: Football is full of crap stats, almost every stat is meaninless. The XYZ team is 5th in rush defense, for example, is generally meaningless. Rush defense as a function of total yards is more of a function of how good your team is. If you get up big, the other team must throw the ball a lot. Comparing one team to another in their rush defense rankings is fairly useless, except for extreme examples. If there was a way to express rush defense as a function of: number of yards/carry, strength of opposing backs, strength of opposing D line, etc. How about total rushing yards for a running back. I find this pretty useless as a judge for RB skill. How about some sort of efficiency rating that incorporates skill of the O-line, yards/carry, ability to break tackles, strength of the system, etc. ? On ESPN there is some ranking system for the NBA and I find it very interesting. Allen iverson and Arenas are both way down the list. I think more advanced calculations (like Passer Rating) would be great for sports fans. |
#2
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Re: Sports Statistics
Strassa,
I'm just getting into a lot of sports stats myself. I eventually would like to do an analysis of play calling in the NFL. Run vs pass on 1st and 10 being the most simple. It appears that most teams pass too little (the expectation from passing is greater than running), but I think something like the oft discussed reducing variance in tournaments may make running just as good. I would highly recommend that you read Baseball Between the Numbers if you haven't already and care about baseball, which you didn't mention. It's a book full of good statistics and strategic stuff. Some chapters are written by 2+2er Nate tha Great (or however he spells it). The most interesting IMO was, and discussed whether Ortiz is clutch. Basically, he created a stat that uses probability of winning through various batting outcomes to determine whether some hitters do better in more important situations. For football, www.footballoutsiders.com is pretty good. I haven't read everything, but there is a lot there. They developed some fairly deep statistics that seem pretty good. I would reccomend reading The Hidden Game of Football as well. It was published I think in 1987 and apparently is out of print but your local library probably has it. |
#3
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Re: Sports Statistics
Strassa,
Football Outsiders check out DVOA and DPAR among other things. also read The Hidden Game of Football Baseball Prospectus VORP, .EQA, etc also read Baseball Between the Numbers basketball is a bit behind (at least to the public), but check out 82 games and read about PER. also see this thread here [ QUOTE ] I think more advanced calculations (like Passer Rating) would be great for sports fans. [/ QUOTE ] Passer Rating is actually pretty poor |
#4
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Re: Sports Statistics
I too wish there were more good statistics, but at least it is getting better.
Moneyball kind of sparked a "stats revolution" that has been happening over the last four years in the major sports, but especially baseball. I know there are some great baseball stats websites out there (I think nate tha great wrote for one for a while). Too bad I'm not a big baseball fan. The NBA has come a long way in the last couple years, with some of the top stat measuring guys in the media getting jobs with NBA teams. www.82games.com is an awesome resource for meaningfull stats and discussion on stats in the NBA, but could use a lot of work. I would love to see some good work devoted to the NFL and various soccer/football leagues, although the NFL can be really tough because of small sample sizes and soccer can be tough because you need to make up a lot of more subjective stats that are only now starting to be kept track of (like keeping track of touches and individual possesions). Edit: I see im slow to the post. Baseball prospectus was the site i was thinking of, and thanks for the NFL link. |
#5
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Re: Sports Statistics
John Hollinger and David Berri are doing some interesting work on the NBA in terms of statistical analysis. John Hollinger is on ESPN and David Berri wrote Wages of Wins.
For football, check out footballoutsiders.com, as previously suggested. Excellent site. KC Joyner on ESPN is interesting, but I often feel after reading his articles that a lot of what he does ends up based on a fairly small sample size. Baseball Prospectus, of course. Duh. Baseball lends itself better to this sort of sabermetrics because it is so much more of an individual's game. The team aspects of basketball and football make it more difficult, which is why this statistical stuff is less developed in those sports. |
#6
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Re: Sports Statistics
The NFL QB Rating is a system that is constantly used as a determination of a quarterback's talent on ESPN and FOX and the other networks, and it is a perfect example of a results-oriented statistical system.
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#7
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Re: Sports Statistics
[ QUOTE ]
The NFL QB Rating is a system that is constantly used as a determination of a quarterback's talent on ESPN and FOX and the other networks, and it is a perfect example of a results-oriented statistical system. [/ QUOTE ] except it actually doesn't measure results that well. Situation 1: 3rd and 10, QB makes a completion of 8 yards Situation 2: 3rd and 3, QB makes a completion of 4 yards Situation 1 would give a QB a better rating than Situation 2, even though the play was a failure, and Situation 2 was a success. even some completed passes for negative yards can boost a QB rating. another example I found: Imagine two quarterbacks -- Super Joe and Broadway Joe -- who both drive their teams 30 yards to a touchdown in three plays. Super Joe does it with three 10-yard passes. His completion percentage is 100, and for the drive his rating is 147.9. Broadway Joe throws two incomplete passes, then on a clutch third and long he finds a receiver in the end zone -- touchdown! For the exact same result, his rating is 111.1. it penalizes guys who throw long, overly credits short passes, and has too big a penalty for INT's. it doesn't include sacks or rushing. basically, what's wrong with it is the same thing wrong with many other football stat's: it doesn't take into account the situation. |
#8
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Re: Sports Statistics
Given Moneyball credit for the stats revolution is pretty incorrect. It's more a combination of Bill James, Rob Neyer, Fantasty Baseall, The Internet and publications like Baseball Prospectus. Moneyball was written after a lot of this stuff got off the ground.
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#9
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Re: Sports Statistics
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] The NFL QB Rating is a system that is constantly used as a determination of a quarterback's talent on ESPN and FOX and the other networks, and it is a perfect example of a results-oriented statistical system. [/ QUOTE ] except it actually doesn't measure results that well. Situation 1: 3rd and 10, QB makes a completion of 8 yards Situation 2: 3rd and 3, QB makes a completion of 4 yards Situation 1 would give a QB a better rating than Situation 2, even though the play was a failure, and Situation 2 was a success. even some completed passes for negative yards can boost a QB rating. another example I found: Imagine two quarterbacks -- Super Joe and Broadway Joe -- who both drive their teams 30 yards to a touchdown in three plays. Super Joe does it with three 10-yard passes. His completion percentage is 100, and for the drive his rating is 147.9. Broadway Joe throws two incomplete passes, then on a clutch third and long he finds a receiver in the end zone -- touchdown! For the exact same result, his rating is 111.1. it penalizes guys who throw long, overly credits short passes, and has too big a penalty for INT's. it doesn't include sacks or rushing. basically, what's wrong with it is the same thing wrong with many other football stat's: it doesn't take into account the situation. [/ QUOTE ] KBZ, have you read the DVOA stuff on footballoutsiders.com? It is a statistical measure of this exact problem. It rewards a 3 yard gain on 3rd and 2 but penalizes for it on 1st and 10. |
#10
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Re: Sports Statistics
[ QUOTE ]
John Hollinger and David Berri are doing some interesting work on the NBA in terms of statistical analysis. John Hollinger is on ESPN and David Berri wrote Wages of Wins. [/ QUOTE ] There's alot of good statistical work being done by analysts and NBA teams. I think more relevant stats and analysis are emerging, and in time a stat culture (not on par with baseball and football, but closer) will emerge in the basketball community. Sports Forum Thread Discussing Relevance of Basketball Stats -Al |
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