AT, thirdpair + FD + GS on turn

[Mitke]

What's the plan for turn and river?

iPoker 1/2 6-handed

<font color="blue"> Villain is 15.6/11.7/2.7 + went to showdown 21.4 after 77 hands. (BB is 46/8/6 after 13 hands.)</font>

Preflop: Hero is in the SB with A T
2 folds, CO checks (poster), <font color="red">Button raises </font>, <font color="red">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, 1 fold, Button calls.

Flop (10SB) (3 players) Q T K
<font color="red">Hero bets</font>, 1 fold, <font color="red">Button raises</font> , Hero calls.

Turn (7BB) (2 players) 5
Hero checks, <font color="red">Button bets</font>, Hero ??

[topspinner]

I would say you are most likely behind at this point....I would call the turn and if flush or straight hits on the river, lead out (on a board that scary don't think he is betting unless he has a huge hand). About any other card (besides 10), I would consider folding the river. Not sure what you would beat here.( I am a showdown monkey so I would probably end up calling the river, to see how he played his hand, but don't think that is your best move)

[sharpie]

Check/call the turn and check/fold a blank river, donk a diamond or jack, and I'd bet/fold an ace river.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
Check/call the turn and check/fold a blank river, donk a diamond or jack, and I'd bet/fold an ace river.

[/ QUOTE ]

agree with everything except i suspect c/f when an A comes is slightly better vs a villain this nitty.

[Mitke]

How about a semibluff raise here, that being the last bets going in UI, i.e. c/f river UI?

[Saikkonen]

Mitke@
You mean the turn I suppose. No then I would rather betcall.


The problem is he will only call with better hands.
The problem if we do not bet is that we will easily get bluffed out sometimes and if we will call anyway why not bet out. He has to fear the nutflush too and he doesn't have it so how often will he raise here anyway.

I know that checkcall is the mathematical "correct way" to play cause we will often be behind, but is there any merit to donk the turn?

[Absolution]

It's heads up, just call. This guy is a nit and probably already has 2 pair or better on this board. I'm folding the river unless I improve.

[Grease]

Yeah, as everyone else has said, he seems kinda nitty (but very aggro, OTOH.) Either way, when he raises the flop and then fires again, I think you're behind and he's not folding, especially on a draw-heavy board.

Call and hope to spike.

[Mitke]

@ Saikkonen, yes, I meant a possible semibluff on the turn.

I agree, he'd only call a turn c/r if we are behind but him being such a tight nit could we just sometime get him to fold a Q? In a big pot like this that would be a huge win.

(The sample is admittedly small but he is very tight for 6-max and his went to showdown is low.)

I think the problem with the semibluff is that the villain probably calls in this big pot even with a Q (definitely w/ JJ , AQ, QJ and probably with JT) and we'd have to bet the river OOP to get a fold - and even that might not be enough.

--
Edit:
To discuss this further, Villain is raising from the BTN after a poster in CO. He's view of me should be tight. BB seems a bit loose though. Nevertheless, Villain could be raising with a bit wider range than we give are considering here.

In the best case we can have ~14-17 outs if behind (vs. KQ, Q9, QT) so c/r on the turn isn't necessarily that expensive. We have even 11 outs vs sets.

[inferno]

lol call and dont raise this flop