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  #61  
Old 11-15-2007, 11:51 AM
JDalla JDalla is offline
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Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

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Two probably stupid newb questions:

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I would never fold AK to bigjoe here if he shoves into me. I know that he knows that im not gonna call with AA KK QQ etc... and therefore he WILL push ATC here and AK will have him beat almost every time

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I can not make sense of this. He knows you don't call with even aces, kings or queens, so he pushes everything and therefore you call with AKo. Presumably, you call with better hands as well, so how can he know you don't call when you do call? It smells like very circular logic to me.

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I'm willing to sacriface $37.68 equity to cost Joe $341.5, because in the future it will be correct for him not to push as light. If in the future he folds his J6 in this spot I either get a walk, or call a short stacks push, with the same 60/40 edge, a result which will probably raise my equity by more than the $37.68 I lost in this game.

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Is the equity Joe loses incorporated into yours? If it is, you give up $38 to transfer equity from Joe to the other two guys, and then it seems odd to state that you spend $38 to give him a $341 equity loss, because you don't benefit anyway. You just move the equity around (unless you figure it's x% of that loss worth to you to not have the $341 in the hands of Joe but the other players who are weaker). If you do get a part of his equity loss, then your call shouldn't show negative expectations at all, should it?

If the above is the most drunken nonsense you ever heard, can someone very briefly explain why?

Thanks in advance,

Smurf

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when he loses I get the majority of his lost equity, but when I lose, I lose quite a bit myself. The average for me is -$37 if I'm 60/40, or -$.7 if I'm 65/35 (or something close to these numbers).

His average is -$341.
The other 2 opponents are gaining this money in EV terms.
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  #62  
Old 11-15-2007, 11:53 AM
JDalla JDalla is offline
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Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

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If he was in the SB I'd snap call because you'll be subject to him pushing relentlessly the next few hands. Since you are on his right you'll be able to shove in front of him on the next 3 hands.

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The math of the call is pretty straight forward and honestly kind of boring.

If you want to think outside of ICM math and look at how the bubble plays out, DD hit on it right here.

If you are looking to make a metagame call - Pudge hit on it with the fold AK - call with something like T9.

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It's an interesting idea, but the fact is that T9 doesn't run as well against his range. He has a few dominating hands in the mix. I'm not sure what the exact math is, I wonder what my EV loss is if I call T9 here.
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  #63  
Old 11-15-2007, 12:08 PM
bumpking bumpking is offline
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Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

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when he loses I get the majority of his lost equity, but when I lose, I lose quite a bit myself. The average for me is -$37 if I'm 60/40, or -$.7 if I'm 65/35 (or something close to these numbers).

His average is -$341.
The other 2 opponents are gaining this money in EV terms.

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This business of him losing -$341 only applies when you call with AKo. It is a +EV push for him in the identical scenario next time as well cuz his overall push is not -$341 with ATC, it's about even or slightly +EV. So if you think meta-game is gonna change his push range, you're wrong IMO.

-BK
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  #64  
Old 11-15-2007, 01:14 PM
Slim Pickens Slim Pickens is offline
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Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

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JDalla, why are you assuming 60/40 when AKo is 65/35 vs random and you are suggesting his range might be worse off than ATC?

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yeah I guess that was quite a low estimate.

Yeah I think you're right. Adjusting the numbers to 65/35 vs his range, calling is now -$.70.

The more I think about it the more I like this call.

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This is why the SNGWhiz plots are so useful. Even though a straight S-C range axis doesn't capture his actual pushing ranges exactly, it's a pretty good approximation. Then, the plot allows you to quickly eyeball the sensitivity of the call to his push range and find the break-even range. With that information, it's much easier to use your mighty poker brain to decide if the conditions that make the play you want to do correct are realistic.
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  #65  
Old 11-15-2007, 01:26 PM
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

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If you are looking to make a metagame call - Pudge hit on it with the fold AK - call with something like T9.

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Yes because he's going to assume T9s is now in your range and factor that in next time. T9s just starts a pissing war. AK says you're probably going to call with that again in the same spot.
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  #66  
Old 11-15-2007, 01:31 PM
JDalla JDalla is offline
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Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

when he loses I get the majority of his lost equity, but when I lose, I lose quite a bit myself. The average for me is -$37 if I'm 60/40, or -$.7 if I'm 65/35 (or something close to these numbers).

His average is -$341.
The other 2 opponents are gaining this money in EV terms.

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This business of him losing -$341 only applies when you call with AKo. It is a +EV push for him in the identical scenario next time as well cuz his overall push is not -$341 with ATC, it's about even or slightly +EV. So if you think meta-game is gonna change his push range, you're wrong IMO.

-BK

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His range may not change, but if he knows I'm folding AKo there doesn't he think push with 32o here profitably?
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  #67  
Old 11-15-2007, 02:06 PM
billybeartku billybeartku is offline
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Posts: 554
Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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when he loses I get the majority of his lost equity, but when I lose, I lose quite a bit myself. The average for me is -$37 if I'm 60/40, or -$.7 if I'm 65/35 (or something close to these numbers).

His average is -$341.
The other 2 opponents are gaining this money in EV terms.

[/ QUOTE ]

This business of him losing -$341 only applies when you call with AKo. It is a +EV push for him in the identical scenario next time as well cuz his overall push is not -$341 with ATC, it's about even or slightly +EV. So if you think meta-game is gonna change his push range, you're wrong IMO.

-BK

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His range may not change, but if he knows I'm folding AKo there doesn't he think push with 32o here profitably?

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obv, I don't know why you posted this actually when a lot of us have been telling you it's a -EV call on your part and you kept defending yourself and kept saying you plan on continuing to do this in the future.
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  #68  
Old 11-15-2007, 02:13 PM
suzzer99 suzzer99 is offline
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Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

Dude you advocated folding QQ. No good player is ever folding QQ there, and I seriously doubt many are folding AK.
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  #69  
Old 11-15-2007, 02:18 PM
jukofyork jukofyork is offline
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Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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when he loses I get the majority of his lost equity, but when I lose, I lose quite a bit myself. The average for me is -$37 if I'm 60/40, or -$.7 if I'm 65/35 (or something close to these numbers).

His average is -$341.
The other 2 opponents are gaining this money in EV terms.

[/ QUOTE ]

This business of him losing -$341 only applies when you call with AKo. It is a +EV push for him in the identical scenario next time as well cuz his overall push is not -$341 with ATC, it's about even or slightly +EV. So if you think meta-game is gonna change his push range, you're wrong IMO.

-BK

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His range may not change, but if he knows I'm folding AKo there doesn't he think push with 32o here profitably?

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obv, I don't know why you posted this actually when a lot of us have been telling you it's a -EV call on your part and you kept defending yourself and kept saying you plan on continuing to do this in the future.

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But the really interesting thing is that even though it was a -EV call for that hand, is it a longterm -EV play if it forces your opponent to push less into you in the future?

It's kinda like telling your opponent: "I'm gonna spite call your pushes for up-to $30 a hand whatever you do" and then seeing if the strategy he uses to counter this plan is more +EV for you than never spiting him and just folding when it's -EV for you.

Juk [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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  #70  
Old 11-15-2007, 02:22 PM
BHokie1 BHokie1 is offline
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Default Re: Big call vs bigjoe2003, how bad is this really?

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If he was in the SB I'd snap call because you'll be subject to him pushing relentlessly the next few hands. Since you are on his right you'll be able to shove in front of him on the next 3 hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

The math of the call is pretty straight forward and honestly kind of boring.

If you want to think outside of ICM math and look at how the bubble plays out, DD hit on it right here.

If you are looking to make a metagame call - Pudge hit on it with the fold AK - call with something like T9.

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It's an interesting idea, but the fact is that T9 doesn't run as well against his range. He has a few dominating hands in the mix. I'm not sure what the exact math is, I wonder what my EV loss is if I call T9 here.

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I don't think you made this post to determine if the AK was a +/- EV call, it's -EV. A lot of people can do a lot of math and argue how bad of a call it is or how it's not that bad, but why go outside ICM. I can only think of two reasons, looking forward to how the bubble plays out, or metagame.

So if you are looking outside of ICM for how the bubble plays out, I still think it's a bad call because you are acting before he does (first to push) on every hand on the bubble except when he is UTG. As pointed out by Ditch Digger.

If you are looking to make a metagame call to tighten his range for future STTs, AK doesn't tighten his range very much, but T9 might. As pointed out by Pudge.

No matter how I look at it, I don't think it's a good call.
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