High Stakes Poker thread (10/29 - spoilers possible)

[ElGuapo23]

When Phil makes the insurance bet at the end, he says he's insuring against a J or 9, giving Eli 8 wins out of 44 and him 6. He uses these numbers to make the deal, saying that he is insuring against a J or 9 hitting the river. Then, when river comes Q, he says, "chop pot no one pays insurance". It seems like with the specific "no J no 9" bet he made he should have lost the insurance bet and had to pay, regardless of the fact that the pot was chopped.

Or am I wrong?

[Dima2000123]

[ QUOTE ]
When Phil makes the insurance bet at the end, he says he's insuring against a J or 9, giving Eli 8 wins out of 44 and him 6. He uses these numbers to make the deal, saying that he is insuring against a J or 9 hitting the river. Then, when river comes Q, he says, "chop pot no one pays insurance". It seems like with the specific "no J no 9" bet he made he should have lost the insurance bet and had to pay, regardless of the fact that the pot was chopped.

Or am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]
I thought so as well. Phil was definitely counting the queens when he was (trying to) calculate the odds.

[rakewell]

[ QUOTE ]
When Phil makes the insurance bet at the end, he says he's insuring against a J or 9, giving Eli 8 wins out of 44 and him 6. He uses these numbers to make the deal, saying that he is insuring against a J or 9 hitting the river. Then, when river comes Q, he says, "chop pot no one pays insurance". It seems like with the specific "no J no 9" bet he made he should have lost the insurance bet and had to pay, regardless of the fact that the pot was chopped.

Or am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

That seems right to me, since he didn't specify that a Q would mean no payment either way. Or perhaps in such deals it's understood that no money goes either way if it's a chop.

But I was more curious about Phil's math. He was admirably quick, but way off, I believe.

Here's the situation: Phil has K7 against Eli's K9 on a board of 10-Q-K-7, no flushes possible. Q splits the pot. Eli wins with a 9 or a J.

Phil says that Eli has 8 outs, which is his first mistake. There are only 7 (3 9s and 4 jacks). Assuming that the three remaining queens are out of the equation (because, apparently, Phil's understanding is that they're a wash on his insurance deal), there are 7 unknown cards that win for Eli and 41 for Phil. (I'm ignoring the cards seen by the hole cameras, since they're unknown to the people involved in the transaction--except that those offered the deal have slightly more information about mucked cards, which I'm going to disregard.Sammy folded a 9, which is the only relevant card we viewers got to see.) 41:7 is 5.86:1, but Phil says it's "36 to 8, 4 1/2 to 1."

Based on that, he asks for insurance at 4:1 (his $10,000 buys him $40,000 from Brandon Adams if a J or 9 hits on the river). He claims that since the actual odds are 4.5:1, and his insurance offer is 4:1, the insurer(s) are getting 12.5% juice. He's apparently figuring this as (4.5-4)/4 = 0.125.

But since the actual odds are 5.86:1, the "juice," calculated the same way, is actually a whopping 46.5%, because (5.86 - 4)/4 = 0.465. That is, Phil was off by a factor of almost 4.

It's even worse if you include the queens as wins for Phil, as he seems to imply in his "36 cards for me, 8 for Eli" comment. That would make the odds 44:7, or 6.29:1, which then means 57% "juice" by Phil's method of calculation.

Looks to me like Adams has an expected value of about $2700 on the offer. (Showing my work: If they ran it 48 times, Phil pays $10,000 41 of those, and collects $40,000 7 times, for a net loss of $130,000. $130,000/48 = $2708.) Hence Negreanu's question to Phil, "What is it about money that you hate?"

Adams took the deal, which apparently means that he's better at math than Hellmuth, less afraid of variance, or both. I'm thinking "both."

Anybody see the numbers any differently here?

[kflop]

Hellmuth specially said he wanted insurance on 36 to 8 basis, which includes all queens and tens. He included the split cards in his equation, said he was 41/2 to 1, and wanted 4 to 1. He owes Adams 40k and Sammy 8k. Sammy started to figure it out but Jamie the genius said "that's what he (Hellmuth) said", and that threw Sammy off. I'm surprise none of the players said anything and really surprised Gabe didn't pick up on it.

[rakewell]

How do you figure that he owes 40k and 8k? I could understand your saying that he owes 10k and 2k. Did you think that his deal was 4:1 the other way--that is, that he had to pay 40k to buy 10k worth of insurance?

Please explain.

[kflop]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you figure that he owes 40k and 8k? I could understand your saying that he owes 10k and 2k. Did you think that his deal was 4:1 the other way--that is, that he had to pay 40k to buy 10k worth of insurance?

Please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct Sir, he owes 10k and 2k. My mistake.

[cpitt398]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How do you figure that he owes 40k and 8k? I could understand your saying that he owes 10k and 2k. Did you think that his deal was 4:1 the other way--that is, that he had to pay 40k to buy 10k worth of insurance?

Please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct Sir, he owes 10k and 2k. My mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

he for sure either owes them or cheated them, one of the two.

I picked up on this right away and then quickly figured the math in my head real quick to make sure he the price was figured without consideration for split pots like I thought it was. Im surprised the people on the show that are smarter than me didnt do the same.

[darksideofthewal]

Gold's showing of his 83 really is not cool. Why didn't anyone berate him?

[Bonified]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How do you figure that he owes 40k and 8k? I could understand your saying that he owes 10k and 2k. Did you think that his deal was 4:1 the other way--that is, that he had to pay 40k to buy 10k worth of insurance?

Please explain.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct Sir, he owes 10k and 2k. My mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

he for sure either owes them or cheated them, one of the two.

I picked up on this right away and then quickly figured the math in my head real quick to make sure he the price was figured without consideration for split pots like I thought it was. Im surprised the people on the show that are smarter than me didnt do the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was really shocked by this. It seems clear to me that Hellmuth should pay up on the insurance. But for all I've criticised Phil in the past, I've never believed that he would actually welsh on a bet. Given the overall confusion during the negotiations, it was more likely a horrible mistake, or maybe there was even something said that we didn't hear to clarify the situation.

[uuser]

Why is it so hard to notice that a ten splits the pot also? It's not crucial but I'm still confused.